A large part of northeastern Indiana has a level 3 of 5 (enhanced) risk of severe weather Tuesday, May 7, 2024, with tornados, damaging straight-line wind and large hail all possible, according to an outlook that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:30 p.m. today, May 6.
The level 3 risk is largely due to a doubling of the probability of a tornado in that area, versus the SPC’s earlier outlook.
On its tornado probability map (above), the outlook uses yellow shading to indicate a 10% probability that a tornado will occur within 25 miles of any point during the 24 hours beginning at 8 a.m. ET May 7. In our experience, a 10% probability for this area is quite unusual.
In that area, the normal probability of a tornado on any May 7 is only 0.40%, according to historical data analyzed by the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory. A 10% probability is therefore 25 times normal.
Of additional concern is the outlook’s indication that the same area (shaded in gray on the map above) has 10% or greater probability that any tornado that forms will be capable of damage rated EF-2 or greater on the Enhanced Fujita Scale. Possible EF-2 damage includes snapped or uprooted trees, destroyed mobile homes and roofs torn completely off houses.
The outlook gives most of the remainder of Indiana a 5% tornado probability, except for extreme northwestern Indiana, where the probability is 2%. This means a tornado is possible anywhere in Indiana tomorrow.
On its large hail probability map (above), the outlook shades all but extreme northwestern Indiana in yellow, indicating a probability of at least 15% that one inch or larger hail will occur within 25 miles of any point during the same period. The remainder of the state has a 5% large hail probability.
The outlook indicates that all but northwestern Indiana (shaded in gray on the map above) has a 10% probability that any hail that falls will be 2 inches or larger.
On its damaging wind probability map (above), the outlook shades all but extreme northwestern Indiana in yellow, indicating a probability of at least 15% that damaging, straight-line winds or gusts of 58 mph or stronger will occur within 25 miles of any point during the same period. The remainder of the state has a 5% damaging wind probability.
It would be wise for people in Indiana — especially #Skywarn storm spotters and anyone who has an outdoor activity planned for Tuesday — to plan for all forms of severe weather and pay closer than usual attention to reliable sources of weather information, including the National Weather Service and professional broadcast meteorologists.
#severeweather #tornado #INwx #largehail #damagingwind
After a small tornado outbreak in Indiana and neighboring states yesterday, I’ve been looking at some tornado videos published by storm chasers. On at least two of them, one can hear on the audio track references to calling 911 to report the tornado. On one, you can hear a chaser instructing a public safety answering point (PSAP) operator to activate warning sirens.
