A call for responsibility in weather journalism

What would you assume when you read a tweet from a mainstream news outlet that reads, “tornadoes this afternoon?”

That’s what “MLive Lansing” (the Twitter account of the “Ann Arbor News” and other Michigan newspapers) tweeted this afternoon (see tweet above).

Look at the 12:30 p.m. EDT “Day 1 Convective Outlook” from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) — a very trustworthy source of weather information. It indicates that the Lansing area has a two percent probability of a tornado occurring within 25 miles of any point (see outlook map below). The SPC considers two percent a “marginal risk.” That’s less than a “slight risk.”

U.S. map showing probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued at 12:24 p.m. EDT.
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Green shading: 2% (marginal risk). Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued at 12:24 p.m. EDT.

To put it numerically, the normal probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the Lansing area on this date is approximately 0.20 percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Granted, today’s two percent probability is 10 times that climatology figure. But still, does a marginal risk support a tweet that reads, “tornadoes this afternoon”?

I think not. Most readers, seeing a tweet that reads, “tornadoes this afternoon,” will assume that more than one tornado is at least a strong possibility. The SPC outlook certainly indicates otherwise.

Poor journalism is rampant on social media, especially from amateur meteorologists. One of my favorite weather bloggers calls these folks “weather weenies.” I don’t expect such folks to even know what journalistic best practices are. Some of them aren’t even out of middle school yet!

Mainstream news outlets like MLive, however,  should try to separate themselves from the weather weenies of the world, but adhering to strict journalistic best practices, on Twitter and elsewhere.

 

Some uncertainty, but Ind. has slight risk of severe storms Wednesday

Indiana map showing Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point between 8 a.m. EDT Wed., Aug. 19 and 8 a.m. EDT Thurs.
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point between 8 a.m. EDT Wed., Aug. 19 and 8 a.m. EDT Thurs.

The entire state of Indiana and parts  of other states (including Michigan and Ohio) have a slight risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 3:20 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area includes all of the area covered by IMO SKYWARN.

The text of the outlook, however, indicates considerable uncertainty, in part because computerized numeric models of the atmosphere do not agree on how fast certain weather features will move. Storms along and ahead of a forecast cold front, however, will likely pose at least an “isolated/low-end risk” for severe straight-line wind and/or hail, according to the outlook.

Despite the uncertainty, SPC forecasters indicated that within the slight risk area (shaded in yellow on the map above), the probability of severe storms within 25 miles of any point is 15 percent. The normal probability in most of Indiana at this time of year is around two percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory, so that makes Wednesday’s probability about 7.5 times normal. Forecasters expect probabilities to change, however, in subsequent outlooks, as Wednesday draws near.

It would be wise for SKYWARN storm spotters in the area, as well as anyone who is concerned about severe weather, to monitor those outlooks.

The SPC’s next outlook for the period comes early tomorrow morning, when it issues the first of two day-two outlooks.

NWS to discuss possible changes to watch, warning and advisory system

NWS infographic with definitions of warning, watch, advisory and outlook

The National Weather Service (NWS) Analyze, Forecast and Support Office will host a workshop in Kansas City in October to discuss possible changes to the NWS watch, warning and advisory (WWA) system.

Workshop participants will review the results of surveys that provide insight into the strengths and weaknesses of the current WWA system, along with possible opportunities for system improvement.

The NWS intends to make any proposed changes to the WWA system available for public comment and review prior to any final decision on implementation.

The NWS is targeting this workshop at NWS staff members, emergency managers, members of America’s weather and climate industry, and social and behavioral scientists. Space is limited and participants will be selected on a first-come, first-served basis. A registration for is at https://ocwws.weather.gov/meetings/login.php?id=110.

While I don’t intend to attend the workshop, I’m eager to learn what comes of it. The WWA system has been around for a long time, yet members of the general public continue to display confusion about the differences between watches and warnings. Further, I frequently see evidence of citizens ignoring severe thunderstorm warnings because they’re not tornado warnings, despite the fact that a severe thunderstorm can deliver winds that are stronger than a weak tornado.

And ever since the 2012 derecho event that did so much damage from the Midwest to the east coast with straight-line winds, I’ve wondered if we need a new kind of thunderstorm warning, with a wind threshold that’s higher than 50 knots (58 mph).

Share your thoughts by using the comment link just under the title of this post. And feel free to share this post using the buttons below.

Circus tent tragedy was preventable — NWS had issued a warning

A father and his daughter died when a circus tent collapsed during a severe thunderstorm in New Hampshire. Aug. 3, 2015
A father and his daughter died when a circus tent collapsed during a severe thunderstorm in New Hampshire. (Sebastian Fuentes photo)

It appears that a severe thunderstorm tragically killed a father and his daughter yesterday, while they were inside a circus tent at a Lancaster, N.H. fairground.

The New Hampshire Union Leader reported that the tent collapsed at approximately 5:46 p.m. EDT. The collapse injured an additional 15 people, according to the newspaper.

This reminds me of another time that a severe thunderstorm killed people at an outdoor event: The 2011 Indiana State Fair.

Both tragedies could have been prevented. If the people at the circus had been aware of and heeded a severe thunderstorm warning that the local National Weather Service issued at 5:23 p.m., they would have had more than 20 minutes to seek shelter before the tent collapsed.

The yellow polygon shows the area of New Hampshire for which the National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning before the circus tent collapsed.
The yellow polygon shows the New Hampshire area for which the National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm warning before the circus tent collapsed. Click the image for a larger version.

Typically, a storm that warrants a severe thunderstorm warning has straight-line winds or gusts of 58 mph or stronger.  A big tent is the last place I’d want to be when winds of that speed hit.

We don’t know yet whether anyone at the circus knew about the warning. Severe thunderstorm warnings don’t trigger Wireless Emergency Alerts on smartphones the way tornado warnings do. Likewise, most localities don’t activate outdoor warning sirens for severe thunderstorm warnings.

Weather alert radios – which are available for as little as $30 – certainly sounded off when the National Weather Service issued the warning for Lancaster.  Very few people, however, carry portable weather alert radios with them to a circus.

Still, the entire audience could have known about the coming storm and taken shelter in fairgrounds buildings, or at least in their cars, had a circus staff member had been monitoring a weather radio and had the circus implemented an emergency weather plan.

Every organization that stages any kind of outdoor event has a responsibility to its participants, spectators, etc. to know about and respond appropriately to all weather warnings.

That includes circuses, state and county fairs, sports stadiums, etc.

In New Hampshire, the following chain of events would very likely have prevented all the injuries and deaths:

  1. Circus staff members program a weather alert radio for the county in which the circus is located.
  2. A circus staff member (e.g. ticket office staff) remains within earshot of the weather radio.
  3. Upon hearing the severe thunderstorm warning, a circus staff member alerts a member of management.
  4. Circus management makes an announcement over the circus public address system, in which they ask all patrons to seek shelter and provide advice on where to do so.

Of course, awareness of a severe thunderstorm warning is only part of the solution. People must also understand how dangerous a severe thunderstorm is, so they take shelter just as they would during a tornado warning. But that’s a topic for a different blog post.

What do you think? Use the comment link below the headline of this post to share your thoughts. And feel free to use the buttons below to share this post.

Enhanced severe storm risk in Northern Ind. tonight

Indiana map showing Probabilities of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or greater within 25 miles of any point between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Red shading: 30% (enhanced risk). Yellow: 15% (slight risk). Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued at 12:16 p.m. EDT.
Probabilities of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or greater within 25 miles of any point between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Red shading: 30% (enhanced risk). Yellow: 15% (slight risk). Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued at 12:16 p.m. EDT.

Extreme northern Indiana (shaded in red on the map above) – from Gary to Angola – has an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms  tonight, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:16 p.m. EDT. Parts of Indiana farther south have either a slight risk (yellow shading) or marginal risk (brown shading) of severe storms.

The greatest threat is damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or greater. The enhanced risk area has a 30 percent probability of such winds. The normal probability in that area at this time of year is approximateley two percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. That means today’s probability in the enhanced risk area is as much as 15 times normal.

Farther south,  probabilities range from 15 percent (7.5 times normal) in an area that includes Lafayette, Logansport, Rochester, Kokomo,  Warsaw, Marion and Fort Wayne; to five percent (2.5 times normal) in an area that includes Terre Haute, Indianapolis, Winchester and Portland; to less than five percent (around normal for this time of year).

Any severe storms that threaten Indiana are most likely this evening and during the overnight hours.

Because severe thunderstorms can be deadly, even when they don’t produce tornadoes, it would be wise for people in the northern half of the state to make sure their weather alert radios are working properly before they go to bed tonight.

SKYWARN storm spotters should be prepared for possible activation this evening and tonight.