Monthly Archives: April 2024

SKYWARN, Weather

Significant tornado outbreak outlook targets Ohio on eve of 50th anniversary of 1974 super outbreak

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Tornados, some significant, also possible in most of Indiana and other states

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point during the 24 hours beginning at 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, April 2. Black hatched area indicates a 10% or greater probability that any tornado that forms will be “significant,” doing damage of at least EF2 on the enhanced Fujitsu scale. Source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 2 a.m. EDT April 2, 2024. Click the image for a larger, clearer version.

Note: This blog post was updated at 8:23 a.m. Tuesday, April 2, with newer SPC data.

Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible
from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South today, Tuesday, April 2, 2024, according to an outlook the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2 a.m. EDT Tuesday, April 2. The highest probability of such weather is centered over Ohio, including Xenia, a city where a tornado killed at least 32 people during the super outbreak of April 3, 1974. The highest risk area also includes the Indian Lake area northwest of Columbus, Ohio, where a March 14, 2024 tornado killed three people.

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point Tuesday, April 2, 2024, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the Storm Prediction Center issued at 2 a.m. EDT Monday, April 2, 2024. Click the image for a larger, clearer version.

A large part of Ohio and parts of southeastern Indiana, northern Kentucky and western West Virginia (shaded red on the map above) have a 15% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point, according to the SPC outlook. Because tornados are generally so rare, a 15% probability is unusually high. By comparison, the “normal” probability of a tornado in that part of Ohio on April 2 of any year is no more than 0.40%, according to climatology (weather history) data compiled by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). That puts Tuesday’s probability at more than 37 times what’s normal for this time of year!

Even more disconcerting is the outlook’s forecast for what the SPC calls a “significant” tornado, which it defines as a tornado capable of doing damage that garners a rating of at least EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale of tornado damage and associated wind speeds. Tornados that do EF2 or greater damage contain winds of 111 mph to more than 200 mph.

Gray shading indicates a 10% or greater probability that any tornado that forms will be “significant”; capable of doing EF2 or greater damage. Click the image for a larger, clearer version.

If a tornado forms in parts of Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and other nearby states (shaded in gray on the map above) Tuesday, there’s a 10% or greater probability that tornado will be “significant.” In Ohio, the normal probability of a significant tornado on April 2 of any year is no more than 0.10%, according to NSSL climatology. That puts the probability of a significant tornado at 100 or more times what’s normal for this time of year.

Data from weather balloons “imply fast storm motions and the
possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which
may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes,” wrote SPC forecasters Bryan Smith and Elizabeth Leitman in the overnight outlook.

Although the highest probability of tornados is mostly in Ohio, tornados are possible Tuesday in many other states. For example, Fort Wayne, Indiana, where the author of this post resides, has a 5% tornado probability, 25 times the climatology norm.

Tuesday, April 2, 2024 is therefore a day during which it is essential to remain aware of weather forecasts, watches and warnings. Here’s a link to a previous blog post about reliable (and less reliable) ways to remain weather aware.

Spread the word, especially if you know anyone who lives in Ohio!