Isolated strong and possibly severe thunderstorms today

Surface weather map showing front across northern Indiana

A now stationary front hanging along the Indiana-Michigan line is forecast to slowly move south today. As daytime heating occurs, thunderstorms should form and mature along and south of the front, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:59 a.m. EDT.

Available moisture (dew points in the 60s) and atmospheric instability (forecast to be above 1,000 j/kg by 1 p.m. EDT) might allow for pulse-type storms and perhaps some multicell storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps marginal hail. Wind shear today, however, is insufficient to support even a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in the convective outlook.

The northern Indiana NWS office agrees that an isolated strong to severe storm and heavy rainfall are possible this afternoon and evening anywhere in its 37-county warning area, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” the office issued at 5:40 a.m. EDT. The outlook indicates, however, that spotter activation is not anticipated.

Fort Wayne NOAA Weather Radio trasmitter to be off the air

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued the following “Public Information Statement” today:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1153 AM EDT TUE MAY 27 2014

...FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER TRANSMITTER WILL BE OFF THE AIR...

THE FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER RADIO TRANSMITTER WXJ-58 TRANSMITTING
AT 162.550 MHZ WILL BE OFF THE AIR FROM EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MAY
29 UNTIL APPROXIMATELY THURSDAY EVENING. TECHNICIANS WILL BE
REPLACING THE TRANSMITTER. WHILE THIS TRANSMITTER IS OFF THE AIR
NEARBY TRANSMITTERS ARE ANGOLA AT 162.425 MHZ...CRIDERSVILLE AT
162.400 MHZ...MUNCIE AT 162.425 MHZ...AND MARION AT 162.450 MHZ.

NWS issues updated “Hazardous Weather Outlook”

The Northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued the updated “Hazardous Weather Outlook” below at 2:58 p.m. EDT:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
258 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

INZ009-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-
025-221900-
DE KALB-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-
ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-
PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUBURN...GARRETT...COLUMBIA CITY...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...
PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...
DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...
BRYAN...WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...OTTAWA...PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
258 PM EDT WED MAY 21 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO AND
NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
LOW RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 24...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

Slight risk of severe weather in Indiana, Ohio today

Much of Indiana and Ohio, as well as parts of other nearby states, have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:40 a.m. today.

The main threats are isolated damaging strait-line wind gusts and hail. In south central Indiana, hail stones could be larger than two inches in diameter.

The slight risk area includes includes parts or all of the following counties in IMO SKYWARN quadrant two:

  • Huntington
  • Wells
  • Adams
  • Van Wert
  • Allen (Ohio)
  • Blackford
  • Jay

The slight risk area does not currently include any part of Allen County, Indiana or any Indiana counties to the north or west of Allen County.
 
Scattered thunderstorms should begin developing by late afternoon and storms might continue into the evening. SKYWARN spotter activation might be needed this afternoon, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:47 a.m. EDT.

We’ll get our next look at the severe weather risks for today when the SPC issues an updated convective outlook by 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Severe weather watch in effect: Severe Thunderstorm Watch #163

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCHES 161/163

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA

948 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2014

The National Weather Service has issued severe thunderstorm watch

163 in effect until 5 AM EDT /4 AM cdt/ wednesday for the

following areas

in indiana this watch includes 24 counties

in northern indiana

adams allen in blackford

cass in de kalb elkhart

fulton in grant huntington

jay kosciusko la porte

lagrange marshall miami

noble pulaski st. joseph in

starke steuben wabash

wells white whitley

in michigan this watch includes 5 counties

in southwest michigan

berrien branch cass mi

hillsdale st. joseph mi

in ohio this watch includes 8 counties

in northwest ohio

allen oh defiance fulton oh

henry paulding putnam

van wert williams

this includes the cities of, akron, albion, angola, antwerp…

archbold, auburn, bass lake, benton harbor, berne…

bluffton, bluffton, bremen, bronson, brookston, bryan…

buchanan, cassopolis, coldwater, columbia city, culver…

decatur, defiance, delphos, deshler, dowagiac, dunkirk…

elkhart, fayette, fort jennings, fort wayne, francesville…

fremont, garrett, gas city, goshen, grissom afb…

hartford city, hicksville, hillsdale, huntington…

jonesville, kalida, kendallville, knox, la porte, lagrange…

liberty center, ligonier, lima, litchfield, logansport…

marcellus, marion, medaryville, melrose, mendon, mentone…

mexico, michigan city, mishawaka, monon, monticello…

montpelier, montpelier, napoleon, nappanee, new carlisle…

new haven, niles, north judson, north manchester, ohio city…

ossian, ottawa, pandora, paulding, peru, plymouth…

portland, roanoke, rochester, royal center, sherwood…

shipshewana, south bend, south whitley, spencerville…

st. joseph, sturgis, swanton, syracuse, three rivers…

topeka, tri-lakes, upland, van wert, wabash, walkerton…

warsaw, wauseon, white pigeon, winamac and winona lake.

————————————————–

* Please tune into your local news or weather station or NOAA Weather Radio for updates

* NOAA Weather Radio live streaming audio:

http://www.weatherusa.net/radio/

* Brought to you by weatherUSA; this advisory courtesy of the National Weather Service

* To change your alert settings, see your Manage Alerts page:

http://www.weatherusa.net/alerts/manage.php?user=w9lw

* To unsubscribe, log in and click "Disable destination" next to your e-mail address:

http://www.weatherusa.net/members/?user=w9lw

weatherUSA, LLC

1799 W 5th Ave #181

Columbus, OH 43212

Highlights from northern Indiana NWS “Area Forecast Discussion”

Below are some quotes from the “Area Forecast Discussion” that the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued at 3:33 p.m. EDT.

“All high-resolution models seem to point toward rapid formation of storms (from central Lake Michigan into Iowa) in the 2100Z to 2300Z (5 p.m. EDT to 7 p.m. EDT) time frame. The initial storm mode should be multi-cell clusters with some supercells that will produce hail and damaging winds, along with some tornado threat.

“All signs continue to point toward an increasing severe threat this evening.”

“Training of cells will be possible with inherent threat for flooding.”

Slight risks of severe thunderstorms in northeastern Indiana today and tomorrow

The northern half of Indiana and adjacent parts of Illinois, Michigan and Ohio have a slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:44 a.m. EDT. In addition, almost all of Indiana and all of Ohio have a slight risk between 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 1:27 a.m. EDT.

Today (Day 1)

Convective outlook probability mapsThe greatest risks today in northeastern Indiana and surrounding areas are damaging straight-line winds and large hail. These could occur late this evening and overnight as storms that form in Illinois this afternoon form a squall line complex and move across Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio. That line “could produce numerous damaging wind events,” according to the convective outlook. Brief, small tornadoes sometimes form at the leading edges of such lines of storms.

As you can see on the maps at right, here are the probabilities of various hazards occurring within 25 miles of a point:

  • 30 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher.
  • 15 percent to 30 percent probability of one inch diameter hail or larger.
  • 2 percent to 5 percent probability of a tornado.

Also, parts of north central and northwestern Indiana and southern Lower Michigan have a 10 percent or greater probability of two inch diameter hail or larger.

In case you haven’t previously seen an explanation of the relevance of these seemingly low numbers, read this explanation on the SPC website.

SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this evening and overnight, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:40 a.m. EDT. Today’s slight risk area includes the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana office.

The SPC will issue an updated day 1 outlook by 2:30 p.m.

Tomorrow (Day 2)

Day 2 convective outlook map

The SPC forecasts a second round of storms to form at around 2 p.m. EDT tomorrow (Wednesday). The storms might ultimately evolve into line segments as they spread southeastward. If an organized squall line matures enough, a “widespread wind event could unfold across the region,” according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook.”

As you can see on the map at right, the probably of some form of severe weather across the area, including all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, is 15 percent. Day two outlooks do not break down the probability by hazard type.

The SPC will issue an updated day 2 outlook by 1:30 p.m. today.

Actions to take

Because today’s severe weather might not arrive until after bedtime, it is important that all residents of the risk area have some way to be awakened should the NWS issue any severe weather warnings. If you have a NOAA Weather Radio, make sure it’s working (see if you can hear the NWS transmissions) and make sure its batteries are good (in case of a storm-related power outage). If you don’t have a weather radio, they’re still on sale at area Walgreens and Kroger stores, among other retailers. Also, some smartphone apps emit loud enough alerts to wake some people.

This evening, overnight tonight and tomorrow afternoon, any time you’ll be away from a weather radio, keep a television or broadcast radio tuned to a local station, so you’ll know about any watches and warnings.

If you’re a SKYWARN storm spotter, fuel up your vehicle and check all of your equipment so you’ll be ready for action!