Louisiana flood victims still need volunteer support

Damage in a Louisiana home from the August, 2016 flood. Operation Blessing photo
Damage in a Louisiana home from the August, 2016 flood. Operation Blessing photo

You might not have thought much lately about the disastrous flooding that hit Louisiana August 12-14. You might have assumed that now, three weeks later, the communities there have recovery pretty much in hand. You’d be wrong.

Operation Blessing photo
Operation Blessing photo

Today, Christian relief organization Operation Blessing put out a new plea for volunteer assistance in Louisiana. As you’ll read, the organization is even prepared to provide lodging for volunteers who travel from outside the area.

Please share this information with anyone you know who might be able to help.

Dear OB Volunteer:

More than 1,500 volunteers have already joined the effort to help and restore hope following the catastrophic floods in Louisiana this past month. With an army of faithful volunteers we have served over 13,500 meals, sent 5 semi-truckloads of emergency relief supplies, and have helped numerous homeowners clear away the flooded debris from their homes – giving them hope to start the rebuilding process. But there is still much more to do!

Volunteers are urgently needed to help sort through and salvage belongings, clear away flooded debris, and mud-out and gut homes – tearing out soggy sheetrock and flooring – so families can start the rebuilding process. Operation Blessing invites you to recruit a team and help restore hope to those who have lost so much.

Operation Blessing is sending volunteers out Monday – Saturday now through September 30. Volunteers who are local to the area (and do NOT need volunteer housing), can go directly to Volunteer Check-In each day at 8:30 AM or Noon. (Please arrive 15 minutes early to complete your volunteer registration.)  Volunteers should wear long pants and hard-sole shoes. Operation Blessing will provide tools, safety equipment, a safety briefing, t-shirt, and lunch.

Volunteer Check-In
Monday- Saturday at 8:30 AM
Healing Place Church (Denham Springs Campus)
569 Florida Avenue SW
Denham Springs, LA 70726

Volunteer Housing: For volunteers traveling from outside the area, Volunteer Housing is available. You can request housing by sending an email to volunteer@ob.org. Please include your name, telephone number, the number of team members, and the dates you would like to serve. You can also call 757-226-3407 to reserve housing. Reservations must be made 48 hours prior to your requested arrival time.  Operation Blessing will provide your lodging, meals, tools, and make work assignments. All we ask volunteers to provide is their own transportation to/from the work site each day.

Please note: all volunteers must be at least 18 years old and serve in teams of at least two people.

Thank you for your support and heart to serve those in need. If you have any questions or would like more information, please call 757-226-3407 or email volunteer@ob.org.

God Bless,

Kerry

Kerry L. Dodson
National Volunteer & U.S. Programs Manager

U.S. Disaster Relief
Operation Blessing International
977 centerville turnpike virginia beach, va 23463
office: (757) 226-3407|fax: (757) 277-0231 | web: www.ob.org

How new friends changed my attitude about storm chasers

Storm chasers on a storm
Photo by Michael Enfield, used with permission

For some time, I’ve looked at amateur storm chasers with some disdain. I believed that too many were putting themselves into too much danger, just to see, photograph and/or video record tornados. I doubted that many chasers were truly motivated by improving public safety and even fewer were doing real science, no matter what they said. I was concerned that many chasers set poor examples for the general public and that their “antics” encouraged lesser informed people to take uneducated and unwise risks.

I’ve been a SKYWARN storm spotter for more than a quarter century. When talking to friends, family members and even journalists about my volunteer service to the National Weather Service (NWS), I was careful to make sure they understood that I’m not a chaser, like the people they’ve seen on TV or on the Web. My ultimate goal, I’d explain, isn’t to see tornadoes, it’s to help protect my community from possible storms by staying close to home and relaying valuable information to the NWS.

So it was with some trepidation that I attended an event in November, 2015 called INChaserCon, a one-day convention in the Indianapolis area for storm chasers. I’m glad I went. Some of the people I met there subsequently changed my thinking. They are admittedly driven by a desire to see tornadoes. But my subsequent experience with them demonstrated that they’re also very passionate about getting reports to the NWS.

After the chasers learned that I have access to NWSChat – a private, internet-based text chatroom run by the NWS – they invited me to join them on Zello, a smartphone app with which they communicate with each other—so I could relay their reports to the NWS via NWSChat.

That’s exactly what happened during the August, 2016 tornado outbreak in Indiana and Ohio. As a tornadic storm moved east from Kokomo into the county warning area of my local NWS office, storm chasers John Tinney, Eric Lawson and David Buell reported wall clouds, funnel clouds, etc. via Zello. I relayed those reports via NWSChat.

Then, a storm over my own home in Fort Wayne, Indiana received a tornado warning. Storm chaser Michael Enfield immediately headed toward that storm. Via Zello, he promptly reported a wall cloud, then funnel clouds and then a tornado for me to relay via NWSChat. The NWS survey report recorded the time of the tornado’s initial touchdown as 5:27 p.m. – the same time as Enfield’s report, confirming that he saw and reported the tornado when it first touched down. That storm eventually did EF-3 damage to a rural part of Allen County, Indiana.

Throughout the event, any time the chasers had something to report, if I wasn’t immediately available on Zello, they’d keep trying until I acknowledged their reports. Getting reports through to the NWS was clearly very important to them. By the end of the event, I had typed 50 reports into NWSchat. All but about 15 of those came from storm chasers on Zello. The rest came from storm spotters via ham radio.

By aggressively chasing storms, my new friends put themselves in positions to immediately report weather that was not near any traditional SKYWARN spotters at the time. By religiously reporting, they played significant roles in protecting people in the paths of the storms.

A Facebook post by Lawson sums up pretty well how this particular group of storm chasers sees things:

“I noticed a developing supercell heading towards Kokomo was looking really strong and rushed out the door. By the time I was on interstate 69 southbound the strong EF3 was already in progress and heading towards the town in which I have spent many days of my youth, and is home to many great friends and their families. Hearing reports of the devastation in progress on the radio made my heart sink. I was rushing south in horror wondering if anyone I knew had been hurt. This is the moment that things really changed for me, I felt less excited about seeing tornadoes, and much more concerned with providing accurate information to keep people informed.”

I have no doubt there are other storm chasers out there who rarely report their observations to the NWS. There are likely some that don’t care about anything but the excitement of seeing a tornado.

But I’m convinced that the storm chasers I know are not among these. They’ve changed my attitude about chasers.

Mobile phones, TV play major roles in tornado warning

Tornado damage in northeastern Allen County Indiana. NWS photo.
Tornado damage in northeastern Allen County Indiana. NWS photo.

When the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning for northeastern Allen County, Indiana at 5:14 p.m. Aug. 24, 2016, more people in the county got their initial alerts from mobile phones than any other information source, according to an informal, online survey conducted by the publisher of this blog.

Of people who indicated they were anywhere in Allen County at the time of the warning, slightly more than 32 percent said they first learned of the warning via their mobile phones (including “Wireless Emergency Alerts,” alerts from apps, text messages, social media, etc.). Television was the second-most-frequently cited initial warning source, at nearly 21 percent. Outdoor warning sirens, commonly referred to as “tornado sirens,” came in third, at 17 percent. Just under eight percent of respondents credited NOAA Weather Radio as their initial warning source.

Methods by which respondents indicated they first learned of the tornado warning.
Methods by which respondents indicated they first learned of the tornado warning. With this and all images in this blog, clicking the image will display a larger, clearer version.

The warned storm created a tornado in northeastern Allen County at approximately 5:27, according to a report from the northern Indiana weather forecast office of the National Weather Service. That was about 13 minutes after the NWS issued the warning. The tornado stayed on the ground until approximately 5:39, cutting a five-and-a-quarter-mile path to the northeast and doing damage consistent with the EF-3 rating on the enhanced Fujita scale.

Warned immediately

Nearly 62 percent of the survey’s 167 respondents indicated that they received the warning “immediately.” Another 19 percent said they received the warning with 10 minutes of its issuance, which would still have been a few minutes before the tornado touched down. Nearly 20 percent of respondents did not learn of the warning any sooner than 30 minutes after the NWS issued it, well after the tornado had lifted.

How soon people reported learning of the tornado warning.
Above: how soon people reported learning of the tornado warning.
The red, five-sided polygon encloses the part of Allen County to which the tornado warning applied. The dark yellow line within the polygon depicts the tornado's path.
The red, five-sided polygon encloses the part of Allen County to which the tornado warning applied. The dark yellow line within the polygon depicts the tornado’s path.

The NWS drew a five-sided polygon that enclosed 144 square miles to indicate the portion of northeastern Allen County to which the tornado warning applied. As a whole, Allen County encompasses approximately 660 square miles, so the warning polygon included less than a fourth of the county’s total area. The tornado’s entire path remained within the warning polygon, so people outside the polygon were not in danger.

Nearly half of all respondents indicated that they knew immediately whether they were within the warning polygon. Another quarter of respondents knew within five minutes whether they were in the warned part of the county. Nearly 18 percent, however, never knew with certainty before the storm passed whether they were in danger.

How soon respondents knew if they were in the warned area.
How soon respondents knew if they were in the warned area.

Best sources for location information

Among respondents who knew immediately whether they were within the warned area, nearly a third received their initial warning via their mobile phones, 24 percent via TV, 11 percent via NOAA Weather Radio and eight percent each via broadcast radio, amateur “ham” radio or outdoor warning sirens.

Among those who never knew with certainty before the storm passed whether they were in the danger area, there was a tie for the top response on how they first learned of the warning; 26 percent each reported TV and outdoor warning siren. A fifth received initial word of the warning from someone they know and 17 percent received it via their mobile phones.

Performance of outdoor warning sirens

Locations of outdoor warning sirens in Allen County, Indiana, from map provided by the website of the Allen County Office of Homeland Security
Locations of outdoor warning sirens in Allen County, Indiana, from map provided by the website of the Allen County Office of Homeland Security. Yellow symbols indicate intermittently operating sirens. Red indicates a siren known to be inoperative.

Every operating outdoor warning siren in Allen County, including sirens miles southwest of the warning polygon, sounded shortly after the NWS issued the tornado warning.

Slightly more than 59 percent of respondents reported hearing an outdoor warning siren sometime during the hour of the warning, even if it wasn’t their initial warning source. Nearly 41 percent of respondents never heard an outdoor warning siren. The survey did not ask respondents whether they were outdoors at the time of the warning.

Respondents whose initial warning came from outdoor warning sirens were nearly evenly split with regard to their awareness of whether they were actually in the warned area. Slightly more than 24 percent reported knowing immediately, nearly 28 percent reported knowing within five minutes, nearly 21 percent said they knew within 10 minutes and nearly 28 percent indicated that they never knew with certainty before the storm passed whether they were in the warned area.

How soon respondents whose first waning came from an outdoor warning siren knew whether they were in the warned area.
How soon respondents whose first waning came from an outdoor warning siren knew whether they were in the warned area.

Of respondents who got their first notifications of the warning from outdoor warning sirens, more than three fourths were within the city limits of Fort Wayne at the time. Seven percent were in the city of New Haven and no more than four percent reported being in any other location within Allen County. The vast majority of the county’s outdoor warning sirens are located within Fort Wayne and New Haven. Approximately 71 percent of Allen County’s population resides in Fort Wayne and probably even more are employed in Fort Wayne.

People close to the warning

Only seven percent of respondents reported that at the time of the warning, they were in the city of Woodburn, the town of Leo-Cedarville or rural northeastern Allen County (in other words, in or near the warning polygon) at the time of the warning. Of those, the initial warning source was more evenly divided, with 25 percent each reporting mobile phone or television and nearly 17 percent each reporting NOAA Weather Radio, outdoor warning siren or amateur “ham” radio.

Only a third of these respondents reported ever hearing an outdoor warning siren, even if it wasn’t their initial warning source. Eight percent never knew with certainty before the storm passed whether they were in the warned area.

Conclusions

Readers should use caution drawing conclusions from these data, because the survey that generated them was informal, not scientific, and the number of respondents fell far short of the number required for a representative sample of people who were in Allen County at the time of the warning.

In terms of improving the tornado warning system, it would appear that steps to increase awareness of warned locations could be helpful. Outdoor warning sirens, of course, do not provide location information. For that reason, it’s surprising that some respondents who reported initially receiving the warning via outdoor warning sirens also reported knowing immediately whether they were in the warned area. Because Allen County activates all of its sirens for every warning, citizens cannot assume that their ability to hear a siren indicates that they are near the warning polygon, but it’s possible that some people do not realize this and that additional public education might be helpful.

Readers might be surprised that a number of respondents who initially received the warning via television were not immediately aware of whether they were in the warned area. If we assume the TV meteorologists who were on the air live at the time described the warned area, it is possible that those respondents initially learned of the warning not from live meteorologists, but from on-screen textual information.

Finally, it appears that a significant portion of people initially learned of the warning via their mobile phones. The time of day might have skewed those results, because many people were likely commuting at the time, and therefore away from TVs and weather radios. Also, commuters would have been more likely to hear outdoor warning sirens than would be people inside workplaces or homes. Still, it’s possible that the Wireless Emergency Alert system that’s enabled by default on all modern smartphones proved itself to be a valuable source of warning information.

Nonprofit pleads for volunteers to help Louisiana flood victims

Operation Blessing, International photo
Operation Blessing, International photo

Devastating floods in Louisiana aren’t receiving the kind of national news coverage as have other big disasters, and that’s affecting the amount of volunteer assistance victims are receiving, according to an email message from nonprofit relief organization Operation Blessing International (OB).

As you’ll see in the verbatim message below, OB has a great need for volunteers who are able to travel from outside the disaster area. Please share this information widely, to improve the chance that it will get in front of the eyes of someone who might be able and willing to help.

From: “Operation Blessing International” <volunteer@ob.org>
Subject: Manpower Desperately Needed in LA: Operation Blessing Volunteer Housing Now Available
Date: 20 Aug 2016 14:59:38 -0600

Dear OB Volunteer:

Operation Blessing is on the ground in the Denham Springs and Baton Rouge areas following the catastrophic floods that devastated parts of Louisiana and Mississippi this past week with more than 40,000 homes affected and thousands or residents who have lost everything. You can provide the hope that they need, by volunteering your time!

Manpower is desperately needed! Because so many homes have been flooded, the local volunteer response is limited and with the lack of news coverage that leaves these residents without the manpower and help they desperately need. Please consider getting a team of friends, coworkers or members of your church together. We will take care of everything you need, including housing, if you can just get here!

Volunteers are needed to sort through and salvage belongings, remove flooded debris, gut homes by removing soggy insulation and drywall and most importantly be there to love, listen, and minister to these precious residents who have lost so much.

Volunteer Housing is now available! Operation Blessing provides lodging, meals, tools and makes work assignments. All we ask volunteers to provide is their own transportation to and from the work site each day.  Volunteers must be 18 years or older and serve in teams of at least 2 people. To stay in Volunteer Housing, please contact us volunteer@ob.org with your name, telephone number, and number of team members and we will give you a call within 24-48 hours or you may call us at 757-226-3407.

If you are local to the area and do not need volunteer housing, you can report directly to the site Monday – Saturday 8:30 AM and Noon. Volunteer Check-In is located at:

Healing Place Church (Denham Springs Campus)
569 Florida Avenue SW
Denham Springs, LA 70726

Just a few days of your time can make an eternal impact to the people of Louisiana who have lost so much.

Thank you and God Bless.

Kerry

Kerry L. Dodson
National Volunteer & U.S. Programs Manager
U.S. Disaster Relief

Operation Blessing International
977 centerville turnpike | virginia beach, va 23463
office: (757) 226-3407|fax: (757) 277-0231 | web: www.ob.org

Last night’s tornado warning demonstrates why sirens aren’t your best alert source

The tweet above from Valparaiso University meteorology student and Fort Wayne resident Matthew Hayes points out something a lot of Allen County, Indiana residents probably don’t know. The county’s outdoor warning siren system is all-or-nothing. That means that when a tornado warning covers any part of the county, sirens sound throughout the county, which encompasses 660 square miles (making it the largest county by area in the state).

That’s what happened at about 9:06 p.m. last night, when the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued a tornado warning that included a small part of southwestern Allen County. A very small part:

tor_polygon
The Aug. 15, 2016 tornado warning included a tiny part of southwester Allen County, Indiana (the triangle indicated by the arrow.
Maps showing the complete tornado warning polygon, with and without radar data. At the time of the warning, the radar-indicated tornado was over the town of Andrews, west of Huntington, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Maps showing the complete tornado warning polygon, with and without radar data. At the time of the warning, the radar-indicated tornado was over the town of Andrews, west of Huntington, moving northeast at 25 mph. Click the image for a better view.

The Fort Wayne-Allen County Consolidated Communications Partnership center dutifully followed protocol and activated Allen County’s outdoor warning siren system. People throughout the county who were close enough to a siren would have heard it sound. Presumably, this  included people 26 miles away in Harlan, where the storm wasn’t forecast to travel. See a map of all Allen County’s sirens.  Remember, sirens are designed for outdoor alerting only, but people can sometimes hear them from inside their homes, if their homes are close enough to a siren.

Ironically, if anyone was in the small part of Allen County that the warning covered, it is unlikely they heard a siren. The nearest operating outdoor warning siren is at least four miles away, at the headquarters of the Southwest Allen County Fire Department on Indianapolis Road.

The outdoor warning siren nearest the warned area was at least four miles away, at the Southwest Allen County Fire Department station on Indianapolis Road.
The outdoor warning siren nearest the warned area was at least four miles away, at the Southwest Allen County Fire Department station on Indianapolis Road. Click the image to see a larger version.

So, last night’s tornado warning demonstrated two weaknesses of outdoor warning sirens as primary means of learning of such warnings:

  1. Outdoor warning sirens cannot be heard in many parts of Allen County, even by people who are outdoors.
  2. Sirens are often activated where warnings are not in effect.

What should you do? For geographic precision, your best bet is a good smartphone app, like Storm Shield or Weather Radio. These apps use your phone’s GPS to determine whether it is within the actual warning area. The next best thing is the Wireless Emergency Alerts that are built into  modern smartphones. As I explained in another blog post, the geographic precision of such alerts is imperfect, but it’s better than countywide, doesn’t require installing an app, and it’s “on” by default on modern smartphones.

When you’re home, weather alert radios provide very reliable alerts but have the disadvantage of alerting an entire county for any warning that includes any part of that county. At least weather radio alerts — unlike outdoor warning sirens — come with voice messages the explain what part of the county is affected.

The bottom line, as I’ve written before, is don’t rely on tornado sirens. Not hearing one does not mean you don’t need to take cover, because you might be in a place where it’s impossible to hear a siren. Hearing one does not necessarily mean you need to take cover, because your neighborhood siren might sound for a warning that doesn’t affect you. Find a better way to know if you are in danger!

Side note: Based on what I know about how the National Weather Service generates warnings, I highly suspect that the meteorologist who issued last night’s warning probably intended to keep the warning polygon out of Allen County entirely, but accidentally overshot the county line when drawing the warning polygon.

Your wind speed estimate is probably wrong

And the Beaufort wind force scale is flawed, says storm data researcher

As an avid kite flier, I’m often out in windy conditions. More than once, on a particularly windy day, I’ve guessed at the wind speed, only to be surprised when a handheld anemometer shows a speed as much as 10 mph lower than I guessed. It’s easy to think the wind is blowing stronger than it is. And a recent scientific study proves that.

“Storm reporters overestimated the speeds of wind gusts—on average, by about one third of the gusts’ actual speeds.”

The resulting paper, “Quantitative Assessment of Human Wind Speed Overestimation,” appears in the April, 2016 issue of the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (JAMC). Its authors report that “storm reporters overestimated the speeds of wind gusts—on average, by about one third of the gusts’ actual speeds,” according to a report on the study in Eos . (Members of the American Meteorology Society may view the full text of the original, JAMC article.)

I learned in SKYWARN storm spotter training that if I don’t have an anemometer, I can estimate wind speeds based on what I see the wind doing, using the Beaufort wind scale as a reference. Supposedly, an estimate based on whether the wind is (for example) causing large tree branches to move (32 to 38 mph, according to the Beaufort scale) is more reliable than an estimate based on how the wind feels against my body.

That might be true, but Beaufort-based estimates are still unreliable, because the Beaufort scale is flawed, study lead author Paul Miller told Eos.

What’s a SKYWARN storm spotter to do? I’ve heard a National Weather Service (NWS) warning coordination meteorologist say many times that damage reports are much more valuable to NWS weather forecast offices than are wind speed estimates. Now that I know my wind speed estimates — even those based on the Beaufort scale — are probably wrong, here’s what I’ll send NWS instead; a detailed description of damage I see the wind doing.

I encourage my fellow storm spotters to likewise report wind damage, rather than estimated wind speeds.

Slight risk of severe winds in most of Indiana this afternoon & evening

Indiana maps shoring risk and probabilities of severe weather in Indiana today. Source: SPC "Day 1 Convective Outlook" issued at 12:40 p.m. EDT
Risk and probabilities of severe weather in Indiana today. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued at 12:40 p.m. EDT. Click the image for a larger version.

Most of Indiana (shaded in yellow on the map, above-left) has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with damaging straight-line winds being the greatest threat, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:40 p.m. EDT.

In the slight risk area, the probability of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or greater occurring within 25 miles of any point is 15 percent. The normal probability for that part of Indiana on any June 15 is three to four percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. That means today’s probability in the slight risk area is up to five times normal.

People who plan outdoor activities in the slight risk area today would be wise to assure that they have reliable ways to receive any storm watches or warnings that the NWS might issue. They should also assure that they have access to adequate shelter.

SKYWARN storm spotters should be prepared for possible activation this afternoon or evening.

The SPC plans to update its outlook for today by 4 p.m. EDT.

Learn more about weather via podcasts

If you’re interested in learning more about weather and the weather enterprise – especially while driving, exercising or doing anything else when you might listen to music or an audio book – a number of weather-related podcasts might be worth your time.

A podcast is basically a radio talk show that you can play on a web browser or download to a portable device like a smartphone or mp3 player for playback at your convenience. Some smartphone apps will automatically download a podcast’s new episodes when they become available. Several interesting podcasts are devoted to weather and often cover topics related to severe weather. Below, I list a few I’ve listened to and found to be worth my time.

WeatherBrains

WeatherBrains is the granddaddy of weather podcasts. It has been producing a weekly panel discussion for more than 10 years. Led by well-known, Alabama TV meteorologist James Spann, the WeatherBrains panel includes other broadcast meteorologists, a National Weather Service meteorologist and a college meteorology professor. The panel routinely invites guests who are experts on various weather-related topics. Find more information at www.weatherbrains.com or search for “WeatherBrains” on the Stitcher or iOS podcast app or on YouTube.

Tornado Talk

Two radio meteorologists who work for a company that provides audio weather services for radio stations recently created a weekly podcast called, “Tornado Talk.” Episodes so far have focused on the 2011 tornado outbreak in Alabama, the 2007 devastation of Greensburg, Kansas, the 10th anniversary of the Hollywood movie, “Twister,” the 2011 Joplin, Missouri tornado and tornadoes that occurred in nine states in early May of this year. Because this podcast is produced by radio professionals, it should be no surprise that the production quality is very high. Of all the podcasts to which I listen, “Tornado Talk” sounds the most like a radio documentary that you might hear on a public radio station. Learn more at www.tornadotalk.com. This podcast is also available on the iOS podcast app, Stitcher and Google Play.

Carolina Weather Group

Don’t let the title of this podcast fool you. It is not solely about weather in the Carolinas. Like WeatherBrains, this is a weekly panel discussion with several regular panelists. Little information is available on the Web about the backgrounds or occupations of the panelists. Like WeatherBrains, the Carolina Weather Group tackles a different weather-related topic every week, usually with a guest, and some episodes focus on severe weather. Search for the Carolina Weather Group on YouTube and the iOS podcast app.

Weather Junkies

Two fairly recent graduates of the meteorology school at Pennsylvania State University host this weekly podcast. One is a TV meteorologist and the other is a graduate meteorology student. Like the other podcasts, the Weather Junkies invite a guest each week (often a fellow Penn State grad) to talk about a weather-related topic. Search for Weather Junkies on YouTube, Stitcher or the iOS podcast app.

Storm Front Freaks

This is one of the newest weather podcasts on the web and I’ve just finished listening to the first two episodes. It is produced biweekly. Only one of the regular panelists has a meteorology degree. Another is working on a degree. Others are storm spotters (like me) and storm chasers.  Two of the panelists (also like me) are licensed amateur (ham) radio operators: Marc Johnson, KD0TCR and Mark Massaro, KD8RIS. Johnson’s bio indicates that he’s active with his local SKYWARN group. This podcast endeavors to be less technical than others and therefore more approachable to amateur weather enthusiasts. Like WeatherBrains, it includes a recorded educational segment. Learn more at www.stormfrontfreaks.com. This podcast is available on YouTube, iTunes, Stitcher, Google Play and Tunein.  

Half of Indiana has marginal risk of severe storms today

Indiana map showing (Left) Risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Dark green shading: Marginal risk. Light green: thunderstorms possible but none expected to be severe. (Center) Probability of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger within 25 miles of any point. Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Unshaded: Less than 5%. (Right) Probability of hail of one inch diameter or larger within 25 miles of any point. Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Unshaded: Less than 5%. Source: SPC "Day 1 Convective Outlook" issued at 8:52 a.m. EDT.
(Left) Risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Dark green shading: Marginal risk. Light green: thunderstorms possible but none expected to be severe. (Center) Probability of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger within 25 miles of any point. Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Unshaded: Less than 5%. (Right) Probability of hail of one inch or more in diameter within 25 miles of any point. Brown: 5% (marginal risk). Unshaded: Less than 5%. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook” issued at 8:52 a.m. EDT. Click the image for a larger version.

Half of Indiana (shaded in dark green on the map, above-left) has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:52 a.m.

The primary risks are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger and hail of one inch or more in diameter. The probability of either occurring within 25 miles of any point in the slight risk area is five percent.

The normal wind probability for any May 12 is about two percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Today’s probability, therefore, is roughly twice the normal probability for this date.

The normal hail probability for any May 12 is about one percent, so today’s probability is roughly five times normal.

There’s no reason to be alarmed by a marginal risk, but if you live in that half of Indiana, it’s wise to remain weather-aware today, especially if you’ll be involved in any outdoor activities (e.g. baseball games, etc.). Remember that all thunderstorms, severe or not, bring lightning, which kills people who are outdoors.

The SPC plans to update its outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT.

Slight risk of severe storms in Southern Indiana Tues. May 10

National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Convective Outlook Mapy for Indiana issued May 9, 2016 shows a slight risk of severe storms in extreme southern Indiana between 8 a.m. EDT May 10 and 8 a.m. EDT May 11, 2016Extreme southern Indiana (shaded in yellow on the map above) has a slight risk of severe storms tomorrow, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued early this morning. The slight risk area includes Vincennes, Jasper, Corydon and Evansville, among other communities.

A slight risk on a day-two outlook means a 15 percent probability of any one or more of the following types of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of any point between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow and 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday:

  • Tornado
  • Damaging straight-line severe thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger.
  • Large hail of one inch or more in diameter.

The normal probability of one or more of the above on May 10 is approximately three percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. That means tomorrow’s probabilities in the slight risk area of Indiana are approximately three times what’s normal on May 10.

The SPC plans to update its outlook for tomorrow by 1:30 p.m. EDT.

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