Tag Archives: skywarn

SKYWARN, Weather

Significant tornado outbreak outlook targets Ohio on eve of 50th anniversary of 1974 super outbreak

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Tornados, some significant, also possible in most of Indiana and other states

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point during the 24 hours beginning at 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, April 2. Black hatched area indicates a 10% or greater probability that any tornado that forms will be “significant,” doing damage of at least EF2 on the enhanced Fujitsu scale. Source: Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 2 a.m. EDT April 2, 2024. Click the image for a larger, clearer version.

Note: This blog post was updated at 8:23 a.m. Tuesday, April 2, with newer SPC data.

Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are possible
from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South today, Tuesday, April 2, 2024, according to an outlook the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2 a.m. EDT Tuesday, April 2. The highest probability of such weather is centered over Ohio, including Xenia, a city where a tornado killed at least 32 people during the super outbreak of April 3, 1974. The highest risk area also includes the Indian Lake area northwest of Columbus, Ohio, where a March 14, 2024 tornado killed three people.

Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point Tuesday, April 2, 2024, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the Storm Prediction Center issued at 2 a.m. EDT Monday, April 2, 2024. Click the image for a larger, clearer version.

A large part of Ohio and parts of southeastern Indiana, northern Kentucky and western West Virginia (shaded red on the map above) have a 15% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point, according to the SPC outlook. Because tornados are generally so rare, a 15% probability is unusually high. By comparison, the “normal” probability of a tornado in that part of Ohio on April 2 of any year is no more than 0.40%, according to climatology (weather history) data compiled by the National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). That puts Tuesday’s probability at more than 37 times what’s normal for this time of year!

Even more disconcerting is the outlook’s forecast for what the SPC calls a “significant” tornado, which it defines as a tornado capable of doing damage that garners a rating of at least EF2 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale of tornado damage and associated wind speeds. Tornados that do EF2 or greater damage contain winds of 111 mph to more than 200 mph.

Gray shading indicates a 10% or greater probability that any tornado that forms will be “significant”; capable of doing EF2 or greater damage. Click the image for a larger, clearer version.

If a tornado forms in parts of Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and other nearby states (shaded in gray on the map above) Tuesday, there’s a 10% or greater probability that tornado will be “significant.” In Ohio, the normal probability of a significant tornado on April 2 of any year is no more than 0.10%, according to NSSL climatology. That puts the probability of a significant tornado at 100 or more times what’s normal for this time of year.

Data from weather balloons “imply fast storm motions and the
possibility for several cyclic tornadic supercells, some of which
may yield strong and long-lived tornadoes,” wrote SPC forecasters Bryan Smith and Elizabeth Leitman in the overnight outlook.

Although the highest probability of tornados is mostly in Ohio, tornados are possible Tuesday in many other states. For example, Fort Wayne, Indiana, where the author of this post resides, has a 5% tornado probability, 25 times the climatology norm.

Tuesday, April 2, 2024 is therefore a day during which it is essential to remain aware of weather forecasts, watches and warnings. Here’s a link to a previous blog post about reliable (and less reliable) ways to remain weather aware.

Spread the word, especially if you know anyone who lives in Ohio!


SKYWARN, Weather

Severe weather is possible Sunday, Aug 6, including a tornado.

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This map from today’s SPC Day 4 Severe Weather Outlook indicates an area (shaded in yellow) that has a 15% probability of severe weather on Sunday, August 6. It includes the entire state of Indiana.

TLDR: The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued an outlook early this morning that indicates a probability of all forms of severe weather throughout Indiana Sunday, including tornadoes; damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds; and large hail. People should pay attention to reliable sources of weather information as Sunday nears, especially people who are planning outdoor activities Sunday afternoon and evening.

How we know this is possible

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is a branch of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) that’s responsible for providing timely and accurate forecasts and watches for severe thunderstorms and tornadoes over the contiguous United States. Every day, it issues severe weather outlooks for the current day (Day 1) and for days two (tomorrow), three, four, five, six, seven and eight.

Accurately predicting severe weather more than two days in advance is difficult. So, if the SPC indicates a possibility of severe weather in an outlook for three days from now, it’s wise to pay attention.

In the outlook for Sunday that SPC issued this morning (Aug. 3), it indicated a 15% probability of severe weather, including tornados, damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds and large hail, within 25 miles of any point in Indiana as well as parts of neighboring states.

Tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds and large hail are all possible in Indiana Sunday.

Why is 15% a big deal?

As percentages go, 15% looks pretty small. But that’s because severe storms don’t happen all the time. The SPC, in collaboration with another branch of the NWS, the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), analyzes historical weather data to determine the normal probability of severe weather on any given date (based on how many times it happened on that date in the past). That analysis indicates that in Indiana, the normal probability of severe weather on any August 6 is 2% to 3% (depending on where in the state, see graphic below).

SPC/NSSL map showing probabilities of severe weather in various parts of the continental United States on any August 6, based on data collected between 1982 and 2011.

That means Sunday’s 15% probability of severe storms is 5 to 7.5 times what’s normal for that date.

What’s most likely, tornadoes or severe thunderstorms?

Day 4 is too far away for SPC to provide probabilities for specific severe weather hazards, like tornados. Nonetheless, the text of today’s Day 4 outlook implies that tornadoes, damaging straight-line winds and large hail are all possible in Indiana Sunday.

In addition. local NWS offices in Indiana issued their own outlooks today that indicate the possibility of severe weather Sunday, especially in the afternoon and evening. These local outlooks also indicate the NWS might need reports from trained, volunteer storm spotters Sunday.

Tomorrow, SPC will issue a Day 3 outlook for Sunday that will provide a categorical risk level from one to five (five being the greatest risk) and possibly modify the target area based on the latest available weather data.

Saturday, SPC will issue a Day 2 outlook for Sunday that will provide individual probabilities of a tornado, damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds (58 mph or stronger), and large hail (one inch or larger). By then, we’ll have a much better idea of what parts of the state have the highest risk and which hazards are most likely.

What should you do now?

No matter who you are, if you’ll be in Indiana Sunday afternoon and evening, and especially if you plan to be involved in an outdoor activity, pay close attention to a trusted source of weather information as Sunday approaches, such as your local NWS office or professional broadcast meteorologists. If you don’t have a weather alert radio in your home, this would be a good time to buy one.

If you’re a trained Skywarn storm spotter like me, prepare for possible activation Sunday, including charging all your battery-powered devices and reviewing what to look for, what to report, and how to report it. The NWS will likely need your eyewitness reports so they can issue the best warnings and keep people safe.

SKYWARN, Weather

High probability of very severe weather in Indiana today

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Probabilities of damaging, straight-line winds or gusts.

Damaging, straight-line thunderstorm winds — the kind that can knock down whole trees and cause widespread power outages and road blockages — are likely in Indiana this afternoon and evening, especially in extreme southwestern counties (shaded purple in the map above), according to a convective outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 9 a.m. ET today.

The 45% probability indicated on the map above compares to “normal” or “average” probability for this time of year of only 1%, acccording to climatology (weather history) data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory.

And in a large part of southern Indiana (shaded gray on the map below), any severe thundertorms that form could create wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. That’s the same as a category one hurricane. The probability of that happening is 10 percent, or approximately 100 times the climatology norm of 0.1%

Probability of gusts of 75 mph or stronger.

Tornadoes are also possible throughout Indiana and once again, the greatest risk is in the southwest (shaded yellow on the map below), where the probability is 10%, or about 25 times the climatology norm. The 5% probability in the rest of the state is about 12.5 times the norm for this time of year. So even though 10 and five are small numbers, they’re important in this context.

Probability of a tornado.

Any tornadoes that form in southwestern Indiana (shaded gray on the map below) have a 10% probability of doing damage rated EF-2 or higher on the enhanced Fujitsu scale. That’s about 50 times the climatology norm.

Probability of a significant tornado doing damange of EF-2 or greater.

The entire state also has a risk of one-inch or larger hail, but as the map below indicates, the hail risk is lower than the straight-line wind risk.

Probability of one-inch or larger hail.

It’s important for anyone in Indiana to have multiple ways to receive severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings today. Unfortunately, the Indianapolis NWS office reported this morning that three NOAA Weather Radio transmitters in southern Indiana were inoperative.

NWS Indianapolis tweet about inopertive weather radio transmitters

Update: The Indianapolis NWS office reported at 11:44 a.m. ET that all three transmitters had returned to service.

That makes multiple alerting methods even more important. People in that area shold probably keep a TV on, turned up, and tuned to a local station (i.e., not ESPN or Netflix!). Another idea is to install the free FEMA app on smartphones.

If your phone and other rechargeable devices are not fully charged, start charging them now.

If you’re a volunteer Skywarn storm spotter, prepare for activation this afternoon or evening.

Ham radio, SKYWARN, Weather

NWS needs storm spotter photos

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National Weather Service SKYWARN Storm Spotter Jay Farlow W9LW using ham radio
WFFT image.

The National Weather Service (NWS) is preparing to revise the web page for its Skywarn® storm spotter program. The agency is seeking photographs to use on the revised web page.

Photographs should depict real-life, safe and responsible spotter activities. Examples include a ham radio operator holding a handheld radio while looking at the sky, or a spotter typing a message on a smart phone, etc. The ideal photos imply action (vs. portraits) and are set outdoors. Due to government policies, NWS declines to use photos of spotters sitting behind the steering wheel of a vehicle while using a mobile radio.

Skywarn volunteer Jay Farlow is gathering photos for a contact at NWS, so contributors should send the photos to arsw9lw@gmail.com by March 31. Contributors should provide contact information of each photographer, so the NWS can confirm it has permission to use the photos.

Ham radio, SKYWARN

COVID-19 pandemic affects SKYWARN severe weather operations

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WX9IWX ham radio station at NWS Northern Indiana
WX9IWX ham radio station at NWS Northern Indiana

Restrictions implemented to slow the spread of COVID-19 will affect one of the ways SKYWARN® storm spotters send reports to local National Weather Service (NWS) offices. Many NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs) have amateur (ham) radio equipment permanently installed. During severe weather events, volunteer ham radio operators operate that equipment to receive reports of tornadoes and other dangerous weather from fellow hams who are storm spotters.

Now, however, the NWS is forbidding anyone not directly connected with the agency from entering WFOs, according to NWS Northern Indiana warning coordination meteorologist Michael Lewis. That means that ham radio stations at WFOs are less likely to be on the air during severe weather events. Some NWS meteorologists have ham radio licenses and some of those might be able to sporadically operate WFO ham stations. But Lewis told me that to reduce exposure to disease, the NWS is trying to operate WFOs with as few people in the office as possible. This might mean that NWS meteorologists who have ham licenses will have no time to operate the ham radio equipment.

Ham radio operators will still be able to use their radios to report severe weather, but they’ll need someone other hams to relay those reports to their local WFOs. That’s where an internal NWS text chat system will be essential, Lewis said. The system is called NWSChat and access is limited a select population. That groups includes ham radio operators who serve as net control station operators. Local ham radio SKYWARN groups can (and should) designate such leaders to serve as liaisons between the radio networks and NWSChat.

Whether or not spotters have ham radio licenses, other ways to communicate reports continue to be available, including telephone calls to WFOs and Twitter tweets that include the appropriate WFO’s Twitter handle.

The voice communication app Zello can also be helpful to SKYWARN storm spotters. Unfortunately, Zello’s terms and conditions do not comply with federal government requirements, so NWS WFOs are prohibited from installing Zello on any government-owned devices. A specific Zello channel exists (“IWX SKYWARN”) for reports from areas covered by the Northern Indiana office. Because WFO staff are prohibited from using Zello, ham radio net control station operators, who have NWSChat accounts, plan to monitor the Zello channel as much as possible, to relay reports from spotters to the WFO.

All this could be tested tomorrow, March 19, when severe weather is forecast in much of Indiana.

SKYWARN, Weather

Demand strong for volunteer storm spotter class

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Library expands meeting space to accommodate weather enthusiasts

Strong pre-registrations for a free class on how to recognize and report severe weather phenomena led a local organization to add meeting space to accommodate more people. The Allen County branch of the national Amateur Radio Emergency Service® (ARES) will host the class at the Allen County Public Library, 900 Library Plaza, Fort Wayne, Thursday, Feb. 21 at 6:30 p.m. By Feb. 12, only nine seats were still available, so the library agreed to expand the meeting space, adding 30 seats.

Scheduled speakers include meteorologists from ABC21, Fort Wayne’s NBC, Fox 55 and WANE 15. Allen County Office of Homeland Security director Bernie Beier and Consolidated Communications Partnership deputy director John Chavez also plan to speak.

The class is free and open to the general public, but because fewer than 40 seats are still available, Allen County ARES requests all who plan to attend, to register in advance at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/allen-county-storm-spotter-education-tickets-54685721465

“This two-hour class will provide attendees the knowledge they need to help protect their communities from severe weather like tornadoes,” said Jim Moehring, emergency coordinator (team leader), Allen County ARES. “Although we are a ham radio organization, people need not be hams to be storm spotters, so we welcome anyone who is interested in weather.”

Moehring said the “ground truth” that volunteer spotters provide is essential to the process through which the National Weather Service (NWS) issues storm warnings. He pointed out that this remains true despite advances in weather radar, because the beam from the NWS radar site near North Webster is 2,500 feet or more above the ground by the time it reaches Allen County.

Traditionally, meteorologists from the NWS Northern Indiana office near North Webster have presented spotter training every spring in Fort Wayne. Changes in the office’s responsibilities, however, led it to change its training schedule. As a result, NWS meteorologists won’t be in Fort Wayne until autumn of 2019 and then not again until spring of 2021.

“We wanted to assure that our members and members of the general public have a chance to receive storm spotter education before this spring’s severe weather season,” Moehring said. “We therefore decided to devote our group’s February meeting to a spotter class and to invite everyone to attend. Because NWS meteorologists aren’t available, we’re thrilled that four TV stations in Fort Wayne are sending meteorologists to help teach the weather-related material.”

A complete list of speakers and their topics follows:

  • Jim Moehring, Allen County ARES emergency coordinator (team leader): Introduction to the NWS SKYWARN program and the importance of volunteer storm spotters.
  • Jay Farlow, Allen County ARES assistant emergency coordinator for SKYWARN: How storm warnings are issued and distributed. Also, storm spotter reporting methods and best practices.
  • Charles Ward, experienced storm spotter: Best practices to remain safe while storm spotting.
  • Bernie Beier, Allen County Office of Homeland Security director: The role of the Allen County Office of Homeland Security with regard to severe weather.
  • John Chavez, Consolidated Communications Partnership deputy director: The role of the Consolidated Communication Partnership (911/dispatch) in severe weather events.
  • Caleb Saylor, Fox 55 weekend meteorologist: Thunderstorm basics, including how storms form and become severe.
  • Caleb Chevalier, ABC21 weekend morning meteorologist: Types of thunderstorms, including those most likely to create tornadoes. Also, radar apps and interpretation.
  • Jon Wilson, Fort Wayne’s NBC weekend meteorologist: Thunderstorm hazards, including straight-line winds, large hail, flash flooding and tornadoes.
  • Nicholas Ferreri, WANE 15 chief meteorologist: Cloud identification, including distinguishing scary-looking but benign weather from true threats that spotters should report.

About the Amateur Radio Emergency Service

The Amateur Radio Emergency Service® (ARES) is a program of ARRL, the national association for amateur radio®. ARES establishes teams of volunteer, licensed amateur (ham) radio operators in counties throughout the country, each of which is led by an emergency coordinator. These volunteer teams train and practice to provide communication services to their communities in the event of a disaster. Through a memorandum of understanding signed by ARRL and the National Weather Service (NWS), ARES volunteers also commit to communicating weather information that assists the NWS in the creation of weather warnings. In addition, ARES volunteers practice their communication skills by providing two-way radio communications at public events, such as marathons, walk-a-thons, etc. More information about ARES is available on the ARRL website at http://www.arrl.org/ares.

Emergency communications, Ham radio, SKYWARN, Weather

WeatherBrains podcast features amateur radio’s role in the weather enterprise

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This blog’s author, Jay Farlow, W9LW, joining the WeatherBrains podcast Jan. 7, 2019, via Google Hangouts from his office/radio shack at home in Fort Wayne, Indiana.

A popular, weather-related podcast recently recorded an episode devoted to the role of amateur (ham) radio in the weather enterprise, especially storm spotting. WeatherBrains is a long-running, well-respected podcast hosted by Alabama broadcast meteorologist James Spann. It recorded the ham radio podcast January 7.

Ham radio has been deeply involved in the National Weather Service’s (NWS) SKYWARN® program since its inception, according to research done by Brian E. Smith, the warning coordination meteorologist at the NWS Omaha/Valley weather forecast office (WFO) in Nebraska. During the infamous Palm Sunday tornado outbreak of 1965, a tornado did F4 damage in northern Toledo, Ohio. Afterward, a ham who was also a meteorologist in the Toledo office of what was then called the U.S. Weather Bureau — Merle Kachenmeister, WA8EWW — organized ham radio operators in his area to report severe weather to the Toledo office via radio. This is considered the birth of the SKYWARN program, according to Smith.

WeatherBrains episode number 677 is available for viewing or listening on the the podcast’s website. Listeners can also access the audio-only version on their mobile devices via their favorite podcast apps.

The author of this blog was one of the guests who WeatherBrains invited to discuss ham radio. Other guests included Jeff Stapel, W8SWX of the Muskegon, Michigan SKYWARN organization and Rob Macedo, KD1CY, who is both the Section Emergency Coordinator of the ARRL Eastern Massachusetts section and director of operations for the VOIP Hurricane Net.

During the show, I mentioned several resources that might be valuable to audience members. For your convenience, I’ve listed them below:

  • ARRL, the national association for amateur radio®: This website contains a wealth of information about amateur radio, what hams do, and how to become a licensed ham radio operator.
  • The tornado outbreak of Aug. 24, 2016: This page on the website of the NWS northern Indiana WFO includes the radar rotation tracks I showed during the podcast, as well as other information about how the outbreak affected my home area.
  • ARRL Ham Radio License Manual: This book contains all the information you need to pass the exam and get your ham radio license, so you can join other storm spotters on the air.
  • Storm Spotting and Amateur Radio: This book is a valuable resource for anyone who is interested in either storm spotting or how to use ham radio while spotting. It includes information on resources, training, equipment, safety, storm spotter activation procedures and more.
  • Allen County (Ind.) SKYWARN Net Operations Manual: This PDF document discusses in great detail how the hams of the Fort Wayne and Allen County, Indiana area organize their SKYWARN net — i.e. on-air conference call — during severe weather events.

A couple resources I didn’t have time to get into regard equipment (although Rob mentioned some price ranges). Below are links to some equipment options you might consider, if you’re thinking about getting into ham radio:

  • Baofeng UV-5R handheld radio: Available on Amazon for only $25, this will get you on the air. Like any handheld radio, its geographical range is limited, but as long as you’re close enough to what hams call a “repeater” station, you can talk to people dozens of miles away.
  • AnyTone AT-778UV Mobile radio: Available on Amazon for $130, this radio mounts in your vehicle and connects to your vehicle’s 12-volt poser source. It transmits with 25 watts, versus the 5 watts of most handheld radios, enabling you to communicate while farther from the repeater station. It requires an external antenna, sold separately. Antenna options include those with temporary magnetic mounts and those that can mount more permanently on a trunk lid without drilling holes.

The “big three” brands of ham radio equipment are Icom, Kenwood and Yaesu. Their radios, while well respected, tend to be priced higher on the new market than the Chinese brands above. Note, however, that there’s a large market for pre-owned radios. These can be obtained through some dealers (who take trade-ins), at ham radio flea markets and through online auction sites.

Ham radio, SKYWARN, Weather

Allen County Group to Host Spotter Training

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Anyone can help protect their community from weather threats like tornadoes. In just a couple of hours, you can learn how severe weather forms, how to distinguish truly threatening weather from scary-looking but harmless clouds, and how to report severe weather so the rest of your community can be adequately warned.

The Allen County chapter of the Amateur Radio Emergency Service (ARES) invites all interested persons to attend its Feb. 21 meeting, from 6:30 to 8:30 p.m., at the main, downtown branch of the Allen County Public Library, The meeting will be devoted to severe weather and storm spotting. You don’t have to be a ham radio operator and you don’t need any prior knowledge of meteorology or communications.

Scheduled speakers include ABC21 Weekend Morning Meteorologist Caleb Chevalier, WANE 15 Chief Meteorologist Nicholas Ferreri, FOX 55 weekend Meteorologist Caleb Saylor, Fort Wayne’s NBC Weekend Meteorologist Jon Wilson, Allen County Office of Homeland Security director Bernie Beier, Consolidated Communications Partnership (911/public safety dispatch) director David Bubb, Allen County ARES team leader Jim Moehring and Allen County SKYWARN ham radio net manager Jay Farlow.

Although representatives of the National Weather Service (NWS) are not available for this meeting, we will follow the NWS SKYWARN curriculum with enhancements specific to Allen County. NWS does not plan to teach a spotter class in Allen County until autumn of 2019.

This event is free and only about 100 seats are available. If you plan to come, please register at https://www.eventbrite.com/e/allen-county-storm-spotter-education-tickets-54685721465, so ARES will know if registrations approach the room’s capacity.

This meeting will be valuable to anyone who is interested in severe weather, including those who have previously received storm spotter training. More information is available on the host’s Facebook page.

Ham radio, SKYWARN

Info resources for SKYWARN storm spotters

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Tonight, I was the guest speaker at a meeting of the Allen County Amateur Radio Technical Society on the topic in the title above. I promised the members present that they would not have to write down all the web URL’s I mentioned, because i’d post them here. Each item in the bulleted list below links directly to the respective online resource.

Ham radio, SKYWARN, Weather

Ham radio operators configure weather radios for citizens

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Ham radio operator and SKYWARN storm spotter Steve Haxby, N9MEL configures a weather alert radio for a citizen. WB9SSE photo.
Ham radio operator and SKYWARN storm spotter Steve Haxby, N9MEL configures a weather alert radio for a citizen. WB9SSE photo.

Five radio amateurs assisted members of the general public with configuring weather alert radios during a special event last month. The Kroger store at Georgetown Square on Fort Wayne’s northeast side hosted the April 16 event, which was organized by WANE TV-15 and the Allen County Office of Homeland Security (ACOHS).

Ham radio participants included Tom Baker, N9TB; Al Burke, WB9SSE; Jay Farlow, W9LW; Steve Haxby, N9MEL; and Howard Pletcher, N9ADS. Mark Frazier, meteorologist in charge of the Northern Indiana National Weather Service Office also participated, as did Lori Mayers, assistant director of ACOHS and WANE broadcast meteorologist Greg Shoup and Adam Solarczyk.

After the three-hour event, WANE chief meteorologist Nicholas Ferreri wrote, “Thanks for gathering such a great group of Fort Wayne area volunteers for Monday’s kickoff to WANE Weather Radio Week. I’ve heard many good reviews about Monday’s event.”

Bruce Jones, meteorologist/spokesperson for manufacturer Midland Radio Corporation added, “We appreciate everything SKYWARN/ARRL does to support weather safety both before and during severe weather events.  WANE-TV is helping get the word out there and with partners like you, Lori, and Mark we are building the NOAA Weather Radio audience bigger and bigger every year.  We estimate there are 15-20 million weather radio receivers in the US and Canada and it is important that we keep them all operational and properly tuned. So in addition to setting up new radios, thank you for troubleshooting the older models.”