Monthly Archives: July 2014

SKYWARN

Severe weather no longer expected in Fort Wayne today, possible tomorrow

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Meteorologists no longer expect severe weather in the Fort Wayne area today or tonight, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:58 a.m.  Since yesterday’s “Day 2 Convective Outlook,” the SPC has redrawn today’s slight risk area. It now includes the northwestern corner of the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office, but it does not include Fort Wayne or any part of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.

Heavy rain might still affect Fort Wayne’s Three Rivers Festival, however. At the time of this writing, radar indicated a large area of rain, the leading edge of which extended from near South Bend to near Indianapolis.

Slight risk tomorrow

Day 2 convective outlook map
Yellow area: Slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Sun. and 8 a.m. EDT Monday. Green: Thunderstorms, not expected to be severe. Highlighted counties: Northern Indiana NWS county warning area. Source: “Day 2 Convective Outlook,” 2 a.m. EDT Saturday.

Tomorrow, however is a different story. A large part of Indiana — including Fort Wayne and all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two except Whitley County — has a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (Sunday) and 8 a.m. EDT Monday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 2 a.m. EDT.

SPC meteorologists expect one or more west-to-east bands of thunderstorms to evolve through the late afternoon tomorrow. The primary hazard will be damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger.

Outlooks subject to change

The severe weather outlooks for both today and tomorrow could still change. The SPC will issue a new outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT and a new outlook for tomorrow by 1:30 p.m. EDT.

SKYWARN

Slate article: Why storm chasing has become unethical.

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Reed Timmer's "dominator" chase vehicle
Celebrity storm chaser Reed Timmer’s “Dominator” storm chase vehicle during a 2010 chase in Allen County, Ind. (W9LW photo)

Storm chasing has become more controversial lately, as I indicated in a recent post. Here’s a link to another article on the topic:

Why This Former Storm Chaser Now Thinks Stalking Tornadoes Is Unethical.

Here’s one of the points the author makes:

1) Storm chasers are not saving lives. In fact, storm chasers sometimes put themselves at risk and further burden local emergency managers should they require assistance. Chasers call this phenomenon “chaser convergence,” and it sometimes crowds rural and remote roadways to the point that emergency vehicles can no longer pass.

I think “Slate” author Eric Holthaus over generalizes a bit when he writes, “Storm chasers are not saving lives.”

Some chasers are true scientists who conduct research that might someday save lives by enabling improved forecasts, for example. And some chasers act as both chasers and SKYWARN storm spotters when in the field — in other words, these chasers report the severe weather they see to the nearest National Weather Service office.

Chasers who do bona fide research and those who make reports to the NWS might be saving lives, either in the long term or short term. On the other hand, Holthaus might be correct, if he refers to the remainder of chasers, who neither do true research nor call in reports.

What do you think? Add your comments to this post.

SKYWARN

Slight risk of severe storms tomorrow

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Day 2 convective outlook map
Yellow area: Slight risk (15% probability) of severe storms between 8 a.m. EDT Sat. (July 12) and 8 a.m. EDT Sun. Green: Non-severe thunderstorms. Unshaded: No thunder. Highlighted counties: Northern Indiana NWS county warning area. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook” issued at 2:10 a.m. EDT July 11.

The northern third of Indiana, including Fort Wayne, has a slight risk of severe storms between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (July 12) and 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, according to a “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2:10 a.m.

People planning to attend outdoor events of the Fort Wayne Three Rivers Festival tomorrow should assure that they have a way to know about any weather warnings the NWS might issue tomorrow.  Possibilities include carrying a portable weather alert radio, installing a weather alert app on a smartphone and listening to a local radio station.

The timing of storms remains uncertain but the current outlook seems to indicate they are most likely Saturday night into early Sunday.

In addition to Fort Wayne, the slight risk area includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, except for the Ohio counties of Allen and Putnam and the southeastern half of Jay County, Indiana.

The SPC will issue an updated outlook for tomorrow by 1:30 p.m. EDT today. By 2 a.m. EDT tomorrow, an outlook for tomorrow will include probabilities of tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail.

SKYWARN

Slight risk of severe weather on first day of Three Rivers Festival

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"Day 3 Convective Outlook" map
Yellow area: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 8 a.m. Sat. and 8 a.m. Sun. Green area: General thunderstorms. Source: Storm Prediction Center “Day 3 Convective Outlook“

The northern two thirds of Indiana and adjacent parts of Ohio, Lower Michigan and Illinois have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Saturday, July 12 and 8 a.m. EDT Sunday, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 3:30 a.m. today.

This means that as Fort Wayne’s annual Three Rivers Festival gets started Saturday, damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater and/or hail of one inch or more in diameter could threaten the festival’s mostly outdoor activities.

As you can see on the map above right, the slight risk area includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, except the Ohio counties of Putnam and Allen.

We won’t know much more about Saturday’s severe weather risk until the SPC issues a “Day 2 Convective Outlook” at around 2 a.m. tomorrow (Friday). I’ll write about that outlook sometime tomorrow morning, so check back on w9lw.farlowconsulting.com then.

SKYWARN

Isolated strong or severe storm possible today but no widespread severe weather

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NWS infographc depecting weather forecast for the week

Thunderstorms are likely this morning but severe weather is not expected, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued at 4:36 a.m.

Thunderstorms might redevelop this afternoon, especially southeast of a line from roughly Marion to Fort Wayne to Defiance. Meteorologists do not expect widespread severe weather in that area this afternoon, but an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm might pop up as early as mid-afternoon.

Elsewhere in the Midwest, extreme southern parts of Illinois and Indiana have a slight risk of severe weather today, as does all but the northwestern quarter of Ohio. The main threats are straight-line thunderstorm winds and hail.

SKYWARN

All of Indiana now at slight risk of severe weather

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2000Z Day 1 convective outlook wind probability map
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of “significant” wind gusts of 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (Read more about probability figures.)

The entire state of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather between 4 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 4:06 p.m. EDT. The previous version of the outlook indicated less risk for the northern quarter of Indiana. The expanded slight risk area also covers all Ohio counties in the county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana NWS office, as well as parts of three of the CWA’s Michigan counties.

The primary risks remain damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger and hail of one inch in diameter or larger. In the slight risk area of the northern Indiana CWA, the probability of either occurring within 25 miles of a point is 15 percent. In southeastern Indiana, however, the damaging wind probability rises to 30 percent. Read more about the meaning of these numbers.

SPC meteorologists extended the 30 percent severe wind probability to the east across parts of Illinois and Indiana because of a band of multicellular storms that poses a downburst wind threat and that are settling into a corridor of strong to locally extreme instability over these areas through evening, according to the 4 p.m. outlook.

The next update to today’s convective outlook is due by 9 p.m. EDT.

SKYWARN

SPC MCD: Strong to severe storms forecast for central Ind., Ohio

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Scattered to numerous storms are forecast to develop this afternoon in vicinity of the Indiana, Ohio and western Pennsylvania I-70 corridor, according to Mesoscale Discussion number 1293, which the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:18 p.m. EDT. Strong to locally severe multi-cellular storms capable of isolated wind damage and marginally severe hail might accompany the stronger cores. It is unlikely at this time, however, that the SPC will issue a watch.

SKYWARN

No significant changes for Indiana or Ohio in 12:30 p.m. updated Day 1 convective outlook

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Map from 12:30 p.m. Day 1 Convective Outlook
Yellow area: Slight risk of severe weather. Green: General (non-severe) thunderstorms. Highlighted counties: NWS Northern Indiana county warning area. Source: “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 12:30 p.m. EDT

See an update to this story: All of Indiana under slight risk as of 4 p.m. EDT.

The updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:30 p.m. EDT included no significant changes from the 9 a.m. EDT version as it pertains to the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office.

The boundaries of the slight risk area remain the same as do the probabilities of the following occurring within 25 miles of a point:

  • Tornado: 2 percent
  • Damaging thunderstorm winds of at least 58 mph: 15 percent
  • Hail of at least one inch in diameter: 15 percent

The next update to the outlook for today is due by 4 p.m. EDT.

SKYWARN

Slight risk of severe storms in parts of Indiana & Ohio today

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Convective outlook map
Yellow area: Slight risk of severe weather. Green: General (non-severe) thunderstorms. Highlighted counties: NWS Northern Indiana county warning area. Source: “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 8:47 a.m. EDT.

See an update to this story.

The southern three quarters of Indiana and most of Ohio have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:47 a.m. EDT.

In IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, the slight risk area includes extreme southern Huntington, Wells and Adams Counties, Blackford County, Jay County, southeastern Van Wert County, southeastern Putnam County and Allen County, Ohio.

The primary threats are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger and hail of one inch in diameter or larger, but meteorologists cannot rule out an isolated tornado, as well.

Meteorologists expect any severe thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. SKYWARN storm spotter activation is possible this afternoon, especially south of U.S. 24, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:32 a.m.

The SPC will next update its outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT.