3:00 PM: the circled area is where our greatest severe weather concern lies pic.twitter.com/lsp0qsnocu
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) July 14, 2014
Monthly Archives: July 2014
NWS Tweet: Severe storms most likely south of U.S. 30
Our main focus for the greatest severe threat is along and south of US 30. Other areas may see strong storms but this area is most favorable
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) July 14, 2014
NWS tweet: Storms could reach Ft. Wayne by early eve.
@bhath19 Storms will reach Fort Wayne during the early evening. An isolated strong storm is possible but storms should be weakening
— NWS Northern Indiana (@NWSIWX) July 14, 2014
Storm Prediction Center Severe Thunderstorm Watch 417
In IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, this watch includes Whitely and Huntington County until 7 p.m. EDT. Follow the link below for details.
Midday outlook update: Continued slight risk in Indiana, Ohio
Almost all of Indiana and all but northeastern Ohio continue to have a slight risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued (early) at 10:46 a.m. EDT.
The primary threat remains damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger.
NWS: Severe weather in Ft. Wayne most likely in late afternoon, evening
There’s still some uncertainty about severe weather in northeastern Indiana today, but the best chances for severe storms across the Fort Wayne area are between 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. EDT, according to a meteorologist at the northern Indiana National Weather Service (NWS) office.
As of 9 a.m. EDT, almost all of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather, according to a convective outlook from the NWS Storm Prediction Center. Storms could form along and ahead of a sharp cold front that is forecast to move through the area later today.
The SPC will update its outlook for the day by 12:30 p.m. EDT.
Most of Indiana, Ohio have slight risk of severe weather today
Nearly the entire state of Indiana and almost all of Ohio — including all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two — has a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:53 a.m. EDT.
This slight risk area represents a significant change from earlier outlooks, greatly broadening the slight risk area.
By far, the greatest concern is damaging straight-line thunderstorm wind of 58 mph or greater. Indiana and Ohio have a 15 percent probability of such winds occurring within 25 miles of a point (see an explanation of outlook probability figures). The tornado and hail probabilities during the period are less than two percent and five percent, respectively.
Meteorologists expect any severe storms in the area to develop this afternoon and SKYWARN spotter activation might be needed, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” issued by the northern Indiana NWS office at 4:45 a.m.
Anyone planning outdoor activities today should be sure to have a way to remain aware of any watches or warnings that the NWS might issue today.
As always, outlooks and forecasts are subject to change. The SPC will next update its outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT.
Weather officials: Radar technology can’t replace storm spotters | Wichita Eagle
A story in the “Wichita Eagle” contradicts part of the Eric Holthaus “Slate” story about which I wrote earlier.
Holthaus writes:
A recent nationwide upgrade to the National Weather Service’s Doppler radar network has probably rendered storm chasers obsolete anyway. The new technology, called “dual polarization,” can help meteorologists confirm that a tornado is indeed causing damage. NOAA calls the upgrade “as good if not better than a spotter report of a tornado.”
On the other hand, “Eagle” reporter Stan Finger writes:
Storm spotters and well-educated chasers have an important role even before a tornado develops, officials say.
“The benefit of the spotter is not just to report the tornado,” said Bill Bunting, chief of the operations branch at the Storm Prediction Center in Norman. “The benefit is also to accurately describe the precursor conditions.”
via Weather officials: Radar technology can’t replace storm spotters | Wichita Eagle.
Mesoscale Discussion: Watch possible in southern Indiana, southern Illinois, southeastern Missouri
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has issued “Mesoscale Discussion” number 1354 that indicates a 40 percent probability of a watch this afternoon.
Severe weather no longer expected in Northern Indiana today
Meteorologists no longer expect severe weather in northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio or southern Lower Michigan between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:28 p.m. EDT.
As you can see on the map above, no part of the county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana NWS office falls in the slight risk area. Approximately the southern half of Indiana, however, has a slight risk of severe weather during the period, as do parts of Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Ohio, West Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and New York.
In fact, at 12:37 p.m. EDT, the SPC issued a “Mesoscale Discussion” in which it indicated it would likely issue a weather watch for part of the slight risk area, as you can see on the map above.
Taking a look ahead, convective outlooks for the next eight days indicate no risk of severe weather in the NWS Northern Indiana CWA.