All of Indiana now at slight risk of severe weather

2000Z Day 1 convective outlook wind probability map
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of “significant” wind gusts of 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point. (Read more about probability figures.)

The entire state of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather between 4 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 4:06 p.m. EDT. The previous version of the outlook indicated less risk for the northern quarter of Indiana. The expanded slight risk area also covers all Ohio counties in the county warning area (CWA) of the northern Indiana NWS office, as well as parts of three of the CWA’s Michigan counties.

The primary risks remain damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger and hail of one inch in diameter or larger. In the slight risk area of the northern Indiana CWA, the probability of either occurring within 25 miles of a point is 15 percent. In southeastern Indiana, however, the damaging wind probability rises to 30 percent. Read more about the meaning of these numbers.

SPC meteorologists extended the 30 percent severe wind probability to the east across parts of Illinois and Indiana because of a band of multicellular storms that poses a downburst wind threat and that are settling into a corridor of strong to locally extreme instability over these areas through evening, according to the 4 p.m. outlook.

The next update to today’s convective outlook is due by 9 p.m. EDT.

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