Severe weather likely tomorrow, northern boundary uncertain

Day 2 convective outlook map
Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (June 4) and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday. Brown area: Five percent (below “slight risk” criteria). Yellow area: 15% (low end of “slight risk”). Red area: 30% (high end of slight risk). Inside black loop: 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather (EF2 or greater tornadoes, damaging winds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or hail 2 inches or greater in diameter). Read more about severe weather probabilities. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day  2 Convective Outlook,” 2 a.m EDT June 3.
Update: The updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” issued at 1:40 p.m. EDT is essentially the same as the 2 a.m. outlook. Our next look at the severe weather risk for tomorrow will come at about 2 a.m. EDT tomorrow, when the SPC issues the first “Day 1 Convective Oultook” of the day.

Approximately the southern three fourths of Indiana plus large areas of nearby states have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2 a.m. EDT. In addition, the southern half of Indiana and parts of Illinois, Kentucky, Ohio and West Virginia (within the black loop on the map above) have a larger than normal chance of significant severe weather (EF2 or greater tornadoes, damaging winds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or hail two inches or greater in diameter).

As you can see on the map above, the slight risk area (yellow and red areas) currently falls just south of Fort Wayne south of a forecast warm front. Forecasters were uncertain, however, how far north the warm front might move. If it moves farther north, the probabilities of severe weather could move north with it. Currently, the slight risk area includes all or parts of the following counties in IMO SKYWARN quadrant two: In Indiana, Huntington (very small part), Wells, Adams, Blackford and Jay. In Ohio, Van Wert, Allen and Putnam (very small part).

All types of severe weather will be possible in the slight risk area tomorrow, including damaging straight-line winds, large hail and tornadoes.

The threat will be greatest from late morning tomorrow through the early evening. SKYWARN storm spotters in and near the slight risk area should prepare for possible activation during that time. Anyone planning outdoor activities should have a way to be informed of developing severe weather and a plan for what to do if it occurs.

The SPC will update its Day 2 Outlook by 1:30 p.m. EDT. At that time, changes in both probabilities and areas are possible. When the updated outlook is published, this link will take you there.