Isolated strong to severe storms possible today, greater risk Wednesday

Thunderstorms are likely today, especially this afternoon and evening, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued at 5 a.m. EDT. Although forecasters do not expect widespread severe weather today, they cannot rule out isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Some localized areas could also receive heavy rain. The northern Indiana NWS office does not anticipate activating SKYWARN storm spotters today or tonight but the office will appreciate any reports of flooding.

The picture looks different, however, for Wednesday afternoon and evening, when much of Indiana, Illinois and Ohio have a 15 percent to 30 percent probability of a severe thunderstorm within 25 miles of a point, according to the “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 3:39 a.m. Damaging wind, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible in the risk area Wednesday, especially in the afternoon and early evening.

As you can see on the map below, the current forecast puts the slight risk area just south of Allen County, Ind. and includes the following counties in the NWS northern Indiana county warning area:

  • Most of Adams
  • All of Grant
  • All of Blackford
  • All of Jay
  • Southern Van Wert
  • Most of Allen, Ohio
  • Southern White
  • Southern Cass
  • Southern Miami
  • Southern Wabash
  • Southern Huntington
  • Most of Wells

Parts of Grant, Blackford and Jay Counties have a 30 percent probability (the high end of “slight risk”) of severe storms within 25 miles of a point. The remainder of the slight risk area has a 15 percent probability, as of the day three outlook.

The risk areas might change between now and Wednesday. Our next look at SPC thinking comes at about 2 a.m. EDT tomorrow (Tuesday), when the Center will issue its “Day 2 Convective Outlook” for the period (the link at left will not work until the SPC issues the outlook).

Meanwhile, if you are a SKYWARN storm spotter in the slight risk area, prepare for the possibility of activation Wednesday. If you are planning any outdoor activities (e.g. a summer festival), plan to have a way to remain aware of and respond to severe weather threats.

Probabilities of severe weather Wednesday, June 4
Day 3 convective outlook map
Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, June 4 and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, June 5, according to the SPC’s “Day 3 Convective Outlook” issued early June 2. Brown area: five percent. Yellow area: 15 percent (slight risk). Red area: 30 percent (slight risk). Read more about the probability figures. Highlighted counties: NWS northern Indiana office’s county warning area.