Severe weather risk moves south

Day 1 convective outlook map
Green area: General (non-severe) thunderstorms between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Yellow: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

Update: 12:30 p.m. EDT update to the Day 1 Convective Outlook did not change the categorical slight risk area boundaries significantly. The slight risk area remains south of I-70. The risk of significant damaging winds (75 mph or greater) that appeared in this morning’s original convective outlook has, however, disappeared. The next update is due by 4 p.m. EDT.

In contrast to yesterday’s outlook for today, forecasters now indicate that any risk of severe weather will remain much further south. The “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 2 a.m. EDT indicates a slight risk of severe weather in less than half of Indiana, south of a line from approximately Vincennes to Bloomington to New Castle to Richmond.

The new slight risk area does not include any of the county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Within that area, an isolated, non-severe thunderstorm is possible this morning through this afternoon, generally south of the U.S. 6 corridor, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:25 a.m. EDT. South of a line from Winimac to Decatur, locally heavy rain is possible.

SKYWARN storm spotter activation will not be needed in the northern Indiana county warning area today or tonight, according to the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Our next look at the outlook for severe weather today comes with an updated SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook, due out by 9 a.m. EDT.