Almost all of Indiana and Ohio are now at slight risk of severe weather, according to the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:29 p.m. The expanded slight risk area includes all Indiana, Ohio and Michigan counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office.

The entire slight risk area (depicted in the map at left) has a 15 percent probability of either of the following within 25 miles of any point:

• Damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 58 mph or greater.
• Hail of 1 inch diameter or larger.

In addition, a large part of northern Indiana has a two percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

SPC meteorologists indicated that a moist and quite unstable air mass over Indiana, plus strong surface heating, could result in scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, including isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail.

SPC will next update its convective outlook at around 4 p.m. EDT.

See an update to this story (slight risk area expands)

Approximately the northern third of Indiana, as well as much of many other states in the Midwest, are at slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:47 a.m. EDT today. Northeastern Indiana counties in the slight risk area include Allen, Huntington, Wabash and all Indiana Counties to the north and west of those. Adams, Wells, Jay and Blackford counties are not included. The eastern edge of the slight risk area follows the Indiana/Ohio state line, so no Ohio counties are included.

The primary threats are straight-line winds or wind gusts of at least 58 mph and hail of at least one inch diameter. There’s a 15 percent probability of either occurring within 25 miles of any point in the slight risk area. The probability of a tornado in Indiana is less than two percent. This risk for severe thunderstorms will be greatest this evening and overnight, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:26 a.m. EDT.

Advise your family, friends and neighbors to be alert for possible severe thunderstorm watches and warnings this evening and tonight. Unfortunately, the Fort Wayne NOAA Weather Radio transmitter is still operating with a degraded signal, so it’s likely that many Fort Wayne-area residents cannot rely on their weather radios to wake them with overnight warnings. 

SKYWARN storm spotter activation will likely be needed this evening through overnight, so spotters, check your gear and if you can, try to get some rest before the storms arrive!

In addition to the wind and hail threats, flash floods are possible, due to very high rainfall rates that overnight storms might bring.  People in flood-prone areas need to remain alert and be prepared to evacuate.

We’ll get our next look at the slight risk at around 12:30 p.m., when the SPC issues an updated convective outlook. During such updates, the SPC often redraws the risk areas, which means counties not included now could be included then.

A tower climber and other technicians plan to meet this Thursday and Friday to repair Fort Wayne’s NOAA Weather Radio station. A meteorologist at the northern Indiana National Weather Service office gave me that information this morning. If the weather cooperates, the tower climber will repair connections to the weather radio station’s antenna high on one of the towers in northwest Fort Wayne. Read more about the problem in an earlier post.

See an update to this story.

Today I received a bit more information from the northern Indiana National Weather Service office regarding problems with the NOAA Weather Radio transmitter in Fort Wayne. One of the meteorologists explained that the problem is in one or more of the connectors in the multiple-bay antenna high up on a tower. The replacement parts are available, but the repair requires a professional tower climber and safe climbing weather (four hours without threat of thunderstorms). Unfortunately, every time the climber has been available, the weather has not cooperated. As soon as they can get the climber and the right weather at the same time, they’ll repair the connections. Until then, the signal from the Fort Wayne NOAA weather radio transmitter will be weaker than normal.

No part of Indiana remained at risk of severe weather as of 3:58 p.m. EDT, when the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued an updated Day 1 Convective Outlook. As you can see on the map at right, the slight risk area moved eastward to north central Ohio counties served by the Cleveland NWS office.

Beginning at 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, extreme northern Indiana, extreme northwestern Ohio and much of southern lower Michigan will be at slight risk of severe weather, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the SPC issued at 1:23 p.m. today. In the Fort Wayne area, the nearest counties included are northern Whitley as well as all of Lagrange, Steuben, Noble and DeKalb. Severe storms will be mostly likely tomorrow night, north of U.S. 24 in Indiana and Ohio, with damaging winds the primary threat, according to the Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:27 a.m. today. Our next updated look at tomorrow’s risk comes at about 2 a.m. tomorrow, when the SPC issues the first Day 1 Convective Outlook of the day.

Beginning at 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, a slight risk of severe weather will exist for most of the southern two thirds of Indiana and almost all of Ohio until 8 a.m. Thursday, according to the Day 3 Convective Outlook that the SPC issued at 3:30 a.m. today. In the Northern Indiana office’s forecast area, severe storms will be mostly likely Wednesday along and southeast of U.S. 24 in Indiana and Ohio in the afternoon and early evening.

See an update to this story (slight risk ends for IWX area).

Yellow area: 15 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Brown area: 5 percent probability.

Extreme northeastern Indiana and most of northwestern Ohio is at slight risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. tomorrow, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:13 p.m. The reason for the slight risk is a 15 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point in the slight risk area. The risks of large hail and tornadoes are negligible.

In its 12:13 p.m. update, the SPC reduced the size of the slight risk area and shifted it eastward. As a result, the only Indiana counties now included are eastern Lagrange, Steuben, eastern Noble, DeKalb, eastern Whitley, Allen, Wells and Adams. The slight risk area also includes most of the northwestern quarter of Ohio, including all Ohio counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office.

SPC meteorologists wrote that the remnants of an overnight, organized complex of thunderstorms were tracking east-southeastward across parts of lower Michigan, northwestern Indiana and central Illinois at midday. Strong heating was occurring ahead of this activity, where dewpoints were in the upper 60s, indicating a large amount of water vapor in the air. In addition, atmospheric instability was forecast (mixed-layer convective available potential energy of 2,000 joules per kilogram or greater). While the timing was uncertain at the time of the outlook update, the SPC indicated that potential exists for redevelopment of intense storms along the remnant outflow boundary.

Remain alert for the possibility of severe thunderstorm watches and warnings, especially this afternoon.

See an update to this story.

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
Statement as of 8:56 AM EDT on July 02, 2013

…Fort Wayne weather radio transmitter continues to experience power issues…

The NOAA Weather Radio transmitter at Fort Wayne…WXJ-58 at 162.550 MHz…will continue to broadcast at low power due to equipment problems at the site. This is resulting in a degraded broadcast signal from the transmitter. The problem has been identified and parts have arrived…although several hours of dry weather is required for the repair. The situation is being monitored on a daily basis to see when the work can be done.

Alternate NOAA radio broadcasts around The Fort Wayne region are as follows: WXM-98 from Marion at 162.450…KXI-94 from Angola at 162.425 MHz…WXJ-90 from Cridersville at 162.400 MHz. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause. This statement will be updated when more information is available.

SPC Day 1 Categorical Outlook, issued 3:58 p.m. EDT. Valid 4 p.m. EDT June 27 through 8 a.m. EDT June 28. Green area: general thunderstorms. Yellow area: slight risk of severe weather.

Less of northern Indiana remains at slight risk of severe weather, according to an updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 3:58 p.m. EDT. As you can see on the map above, Allen County, Indiana remains at slight risk, but most of Huntington and Wells Counties are out of the slight risk area again. Only the northern half of Adams County still has a slight risk of severe weather.

Otherwise, the situation remains pretty much the same as at midday. Severe storms remain possible and spotter activation might be needed in the slight risk area this afternoon or tonight.