Slight risk of severe wind, hail, flash flood this evening and overnight

Categorical map from Day 1 Convective Outlook

See an update to this story (slight risk area expands)

Approximately the northern third of Indiana, as well as much of many other states in the Midwest, are at slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:47 a.m. EDT today. Northeastern Indiana counties in the slight risk area include Allen, Huntington, Wabash and all Indiana Counties to the north and west of those. Adams, Wells, Jay and Blackford counties are not included. The eastern edge of the slight risk area follows the Indiana/Ohio state line, so no Ohio counties are included.

The primary threats are straight-line winds or wind gusts of at least 58 mph and hail of at least one inch diameter. There’s a 15 percent probability of either occurring within 25 miles of any point in the slight risk area. The probability of a tornado in Indiana is less than two percent. This risk for severe thunderstorms will be greatest this evening and overnight, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 5:26 a.m. EDT.

Advise your family, friends and neighbors to be alert for possible severe thunderstorm watches and warnings this evening and tonight. Unfortunately, the Fort Wayne NOAA Weather Radio transmitter is still operating with a degraded signal, so it’s likely that many Fort Wayne-area residents cannot rely on their weather radios to wake them with overnight warnings. 

SKYWARN storm spotter activation will likely be needed this evening through overnight, so spotters, check your gear and if you can, try to get some rest before the storms arrive!

In addition to the wind and hail threats, flash floods are possible, due to very high rainfall rates that overnight storms might bring.  People in flood-prone areas need to remain alert and be prepared to evacuate.

We’ll get our next look at the slight risk at around 12:30 p.m., when the SPC issues an updated convective outlook. During such updates, the SPC often redraws the risk areas, which means counties not included now could be included then.