SPC mesoscale discussion: Watch possible in northern Indiana

MCD 1707 map
SPC is monitoring trends within the red, scalloped loop to determine if a watch will be needed this afternoon.

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center is monitoring trends in the area indicated on the map above for any increase in thunderstorm activity late this morning through early afternoon and for a conditional tornado threat, according to a “Mesoscale Discussion” it issued at 11:34 a.m. EDT.

A leading shortwave trough is currently moving across northern Illinois and will continue rapidly northeastward across Indiana, northwestern Ohio and Lower Michigan.

Around 10:30 a.m. EDT, a weak thunderstorm showed brief supercell characteristics over central Illinois. This suggests the environment is close to being favorable for at least brief tornadoes.

A limiting factor is extensive cloud cover ahead of the leading band of precipitation, but partial heating is occurring across southwestern Indiana.

It is unclear whether atmospheric destabilization will be sufficient for further supercell development today before the aforementioned shortwave trough moves through. Once that wave passes, early potential for severe storms should be largely over, with any additional and primarily wind threat focusing southwestward along the trailing cold front.

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