Nearly the entire state of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 8:56 a.m. EDT today. The slight risk area also includes about half of the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office and all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.
The primary threat is damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or stronger, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. As you can see on the maps at right, the probability of damaging straight-line winds in northeastern Indiana is 15 percent, which is about 7.5 times the average probability for this time of year (2 percent). The probability of a tornado is 2 percent, which is about 20 times the average probability for this time of year (0.1 percent).
The severe weather risk is conditional, because it depends largely on sunshine. If cloud cover remains heavy all day, the threat of severe weather will be much lower than if the area sees sunshine. This is because the sun’s heating of the earth’s surface would increase atmospheric instability.
Residents of the slight risk area should be sure they have a reliable way to be aware of any watches or warnings the NWS might issue today, such as a weather alert radio. You can also keep up to date on weather developments by subscribing to this blog, following the northern Indiana NWS office on Twitter (@NWSIWX) and/or liking the northern Indiana NWS office on Facebook.
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