Severe weather risks remain for Indiana, Ohio this weekend

Day 1 convective outlook wind map
Probabilities of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater within 25 miles of a point between 9 a.m. EDT July 26 and 8 a.m. EDT July 27.
day 1 convective outlook hail map
Probabilities of hail of one inch diameter or larger within 25 miles of a point between 9 a.m. EDT July 26 and 8 a.m. EDT July 27. Dark red area also has a 10 percent or greater probability of significant hail (two inches or larger).
Day 1 convective outlook tornado map
Probabilities of a tornado within 25 miles of a point between 9 a.m. EDT July 26 and 8 a.m. EDT July 27.
Day 2 convective outlook map
Probabilities of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Sun. July 27 and 8 a.m. EDT Mon. Brown area: 5 percent (below “slight risk” criteria). Yellow: 15 percent (low end of “slight risk”). Red: 30 percent (high end of “slight risk”). Purple: 45 percent (moderate risk). Darkened area outlined in black: 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather (see explanation in text).

See an update to this story.

Most of Indiana and Ohio continue to have a slight risk of severe weather and most of southern Indiana has a moderate risk between 9 a.m. EDT today (July 26) and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:48 a.m. EDT.

The greatest risks today are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater and hail of one inch or more in diameter, but a tornado or two is also possible. Remember, however, that a very severe thunderstorm can be more dangerous than a weak tornado.

For today, severe storms are most likely during the evening and overnight hours, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 6:12 a.m. SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed tonight, according to that outlook.

Today and tonight, readers in the Fort Wayne area have a 15 percent probability of damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger, a 15 percent probability of hail of one inch diameter or larger and a 2 percent probability of a tornado. All of these probabilities fit in “slight risk” category but they’re also all markedly higher than the probabilities for a normal day this time of year. Read more about how to interpret outlook probabilities.

In most of the southern half of Indiana (the purple area on the top map), including Indianapolis, Bloomington and Terre Haute,  the damaging straight-line wind probability today and tonight is 45 percent, which falls into the “moderate risk” category.

On Sunday, most of the severe weather risk is farther east, but the Fort Wayne area and all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two have a slight risk of some form of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Sunday and 8 a.m. EDT Monday, according to the “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the SPC issued at 2:06 a.m.

In addition, part of the quadrant (All or parts of the Indiana counties of Adams, Wells, Blackford and Jay and the Ohio counties of Paulding, Van Wert, Putnam and Allen) have a 10 percent or greater risk of significant severe weather during that period. The SPC defines “significant severe weather” as any one of the following: tornadoes capable of producing  EF2 or greater damage, damaging straight-line winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or two-inch-diameter or larger hail.

Day two outlooks do not provide probabilities for each type of severe weather. The text of the outlook, however, indicates threats of large hail, damaging straight-line winds and tornadoes, especially in the 30 percent (red) and 45 percent (purple) areas. Although Fort Wayne and the rest of quadrant two are in a 15 percent probability area Sunday, none of the three types of severe weather can at this time be ruled out.

Any such storms on Sunday are most likely in the afternoon, when SKYWARN storm spotter activation might again be necessary.

It would be wise for anyone who lives in Indiana or Ohio to make sure they have a way of finding out about any watches or warnings the NWS might issue today or tomorrow, whether they are outdoors at fairs, ball games, etc. or indoors sleeping late at night.

The SPC will update its outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT and its outlook for tomorrow by 1:30 p.m. EDT.

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