Updated Sat. outlook adds “significant severe” risk for central Ind.

1:22 p.m. Day 2 convective outlook map
Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. EDT Sat. and 8 a.m. EDT Sun. Brown area: 5 percent (below “slight risk” criteria). Yellow: 15 percent (low end of “slight risk”). Red: 30 percent (high end of “slight risk”). Darkened area outlined in black: 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather (see explanation in text). Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook,” 1:22 p.m.

Central Indiana now has a 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather between 8 a.m. tomorrow (Sat., July 26) and 8 a.m. Sunday, according to an updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:22 p.m. The SPC defines “significant severe weather” as any one of the following: tornadoes capable of producing  EF2 or greater damage, damaging straight-line winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or two-inch-diameter or larger hail.  The significant severe weather area includes most of Blackford County, Indiana and the southwestern corner of Jay County, both of which are part of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.

In addition to the addition of a significant severe weather risk, the size of the 30 percent severe weather probability area (high end of “slight risk”) has grown since this morning’s version of the day two outlook. It now includes most of Allen County and Whitley Counties of Indiana, most of Paulding County, Ohio and about half of Putnam County, Ohio.

For more on outlooks for this weekend, see my earlier post.

The outlook described above is subject to change (it could get more or less serious tomorrow nears). Our next look at the outlook for tomorrow (Sat.) comes when the SPC issues its “Day 1 Convective Outlook” due out by 2 a.m. EDT tomorrow.

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