Slight risk for severe weather this afternoon and tonight

Probabilities of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Purple area: 45 percent. Red area: 30 percent. Yellow area: 15 percent. Brown area: five percent. Grey area outlined in black: 10 percent or greater probability of “significant” wind gusts of 75 mph or greater within 25 miles of a point. Highlighted counties: County warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office.

See an update to this post.

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in northeastern, northwestern and north central Indiana between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:52 a.m. EDT.

The greatest threats are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater and hail of one inch or greater diamter. A small part of northwestern Indiana has an enhanced risk of “significant” damaging thunderstorms winds (gusts of 75 mph or greater).

The slight risk area includes the following counties in IMO SKYWARN quadrant two: Allen (Ind.), Whitley, Huntington, Wells, Adams, Blackford and parts of Jay and Paulding.

The counties (or parts of counties) listed above have the following probabilities of the following types of severe weather within 25 miles of a point:

Tornado Two percent
Damaging thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater 15 percent
Hail of one inch diameter or larger 15 percent

Some thunderstorms might occur this afternoon but the chance is greatest tonight, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the NWS northern Indiana office issued at 4:28 a.m. EDT. That outlook indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation will likely be needed tonight.

As always when this amount of risk is present, people planning outdoor activities this afternoon and tonight should assure that they have a way of learning of any watches or warnings that the NWS might issue and a way to quickly take shelter. SKYWARN storm spotters should fuel up their vehicles, make sure their communications equipment is ready and review reporting criteria and procedures.

The SPC will next update its convective outlook for today by 12:30 p.m. EDT.