SPC changes its mind, puts northern Indiana under slight risk

Day 1 convective outlook map from 3:45 p.m. EDT
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Learn why 15 percent is meaningful.

After issuing “Day 1 Convective Outlooks” at 2 a.m. and 9 a.m. EDT that indicated no risk of severe weather today in Indiana, the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a revised outlook at 12:30 p.m. that indicated a slight risk of severe weather in most of the northern half of Indiana. That risk continues in the updated outlook that the SPC issued at 3:45 p.m. EDT.

The primary threat is damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or stronger. The outlook indicates a 15 percent probability of such winds within 25 miles of a point. The probably of of a tornado in the area is less than two percent and the probability of large hail is less than five percent.

The slight risk area includes all of the 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office, except for a bit of the northwest corner. The slight risk area includes all county in IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.

The latest “Hazardous Weather Outlook” from the northern Indiana NWS office, issued at 12:36 p.m. EDT, indicated that SKYWARN spotter activation was not anticipated at that time.