|Risks of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday. Yellow area: slight risk. Red area: moderate risk.|
Much of Indiana has a slight risk of severe storms between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to a Day 1 Convective Outlook the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:37 a.m. EDT. In addition, much of the eastern half of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather during the subsequent 24-hour period, between 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday and 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, according to this morning Day 2 Convective Outlook.
Area covered today
As you can see on the map graphic at right, The northern edge of today’s slight risk area includes all or parts (at least half) of the following Indiana counties: Jasper, White, Cass, Howard, Grant, Delaware and Randolph. Indiana counties to the north of these are either not included or only small parts are included. Today’s slight risk area includes all Indiana counties to the south of the counties listed above. In Ohio, today’s slight risk area includes Darke, Miami, Clark and Greene Counties and other counties to the south of those.
The main severe weather risks in Indiana today and tonight are damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher and one inch diameter or larger hail. The probability of either of those within 25 miles of a point is 15 percent, except for a few counties in west central Indiana, where the hail risk reaches 30 percent.
A band of showers and low-topped thunderstorms are forecast to develop during the afternoon today in the vicinity of eastern Iowa and western Illinois. Those storms will move east and are forecast to weaken at around sunset.
This morning’s Day 2 Convective Outlook puts all but the easternmost counties of Ohio and much of eastern Indiana under slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday and 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday. Indiana Counties at last half of which are covered include: Steuben, DeKalb, Whitley, Allen, Huntington, Adams, Wells, Grant, Blackford, Jay and counties to the south of these, all the way to Louisville and Cincinnati. The probability of any kind of severe weather within 25 miles of a point is 15 percent. The greatest risk for severe weather during this period will be Tuesday afternoon through early evening.
The SPC will issue an updated Day 1 Convective Outlook by 12:30 p.m. EDT. The next look at Tuesday’s severe weather risk comes in an updated Day 2 Convective Outlook by 1:30 p.m.
If you have family in Tennessee, Mississippi or Alabama, you’ll want to know that there’s a moderate risk of tornadoes in parts of those states today, including tornadoes capable of producing up to EF5 damage. Its particularly important for people in those areas to remain aware of the weather situation today.