No part of Indiana has more than a 15 percent risk of one inch diameter or larger hail within 25 miles of a point, according to the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:46 p.m. EDT. An earlier version of the outlook indicated a 30 percent probability of severe hail in a few extreme west-central Indiana counties.
As of the latest outlook, approximately the southern two thirds of Indiana remained at slight risk of severe weather until 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday, with 15 percent probabilities of severe hail or damaging thunderstorm winds within 25 miles of a point. The probability of a tornado in Indiana during the same period is two percent or less.
Meanwhile, parts of Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama remain at moderate risk of a tornado today, including a risk of a “significant” tornado (one capable of creating EF2 to EF5 damage).
The SPC will issue its next update to the convective outlook for today by 4 p.m. EDT.