Almost all of Indiana and Ohio are now at slight risk of severe weather, according to the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:29 p.m. The expanded slight risk area includes all Indiana, Ohio and Michigan counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office.

The entire slight risk area (depicted in the map at left) has a 15 percent probability of either of the following within 25 miles of any point:

• Damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 58 mph or greater.
• Hail of 1 inch diameter or larger.

In addition, a large part of northern Indiana has a two percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.

SPC meteorologists indicated that a moist and quite unstable air mass over Indiana, plus strong surface heating, could result in scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon, including isolated severe storms capable of damaging winds and hail.

SPC will next update its convective outlook at around 4 p.m. EDT.