SKYWARN

Significant severe weather event forecast for tomorrow

See an update to this post.

Friends, the outlook for severe weather in Indiana tomorrow, April 18, is significantly more severe than it was yesterday. Have a look at the map below, which is from the “Day Two Convective Outlook” that the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued early this morning.

Map from convective outlook
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)

As you can see, almost the entire state of Indiana has a 30 percent probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Plus (and new in today’s outlook), the same area of Indiana has a 10 percent or greater probability of significant severe weather within 25 miles of a point. The SPC defines “significant severe weather” as hail of two inches or larger diameter, winds of 65 knots (75 mph) or stronger or tornadoes that rate as F2 or stronger.

In its Hazardous Weather Outlook today, the northern Indiana NWS officer writes, “A line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany a strong cold front moving from west to east across the area Thursday night. These storms may be severe with damaging winds the main threat.” The outlook indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow night.

I strongly recommend that you keep an eye on the SPC site for updated convective outlooks. And tomorrow, be prepared for watches and warnings. And while you’re at it, make sure your family and friends are prepared, as well.

See an update to this post.  

SKYWARN

Slight risk of severe weather Thursday

This morning’s “Day 3 Convective Outlook” from the NWS Storm Prediction Center indicates a slight risk of severe weather in almost all of Indiana between 7 a.m. EDT Thursday, April 18 and 7 a.m. EDT Friday, April 19.

Convective outlook map

As you can see in the map above, for most of Indiana, including all counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office, the outlook indicates a 15 percent probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. In parts of west central and southwestern Indiana, the probability is 30 percent.

It would be a good idea to keep an eye on SPC convective outlooks as Thursday approaches.

Traffic handling

When did it start?

Radiogram preambles end with an optional time filed and mandatory date filed. We transmit both without introduction. We say all four digits of the time filed (if present), one digit at a time. If a letter is present to indicate the time zone, we say that letter phonetically. We transmit the date by saying the month name in full (even if it is abbreviated in the radiogram), then the day, one digit at a time. For example, we say “Indiana, zero nine one three Zulu, April one five.” After we say the last digit of the date, we pause and take a breath. That pause signals that the preamble is finished. We do not say “break” here. Next week: Addressing the addressee.

(This is the eighth in a series of short traffic-handling columns I submitted to the Kosciusko County ARES newsletter.)

SKYWARN

Indiana severe weather remains possible today

Well, the map on today’s “Day One Convective Outlook” looks pretty much the same as yesterday’s day two outlook. It continues to indicate a slight risk of severe weather today in almost all of Indiana.

The text of the outlook indicates that a low is forecast to move eastward across northern Missouri, with a warm front extending eastward from the low across central Illinois, northern Indiana, northern Ohio and into Pennsylvania (the warm front is depicted as a stationary front on the surface chart below).

Forecast models suggest that scattered thunderstorms will initiate this afternoon along and to the north of the warm front, with more isolated storms possible south of it. The environment should support severe storm development south of the warm front. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threat, with some hail also possible.

The Northern Indiana NWS weather forecast office seems to concur, as its Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO) indicates that spotter activation is not anticipated in its county warning area (CWA). The HWO that the Indianapolis office issued this morning, however, indicates that spotter activation is possible in its CWA late tonight or early tomorrow morning.

SKYWARN

New NWS videos provide important weather safety info

The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in Norman, Oklahoma has produced three YouTube videos to help keep people safe during severe weather. These videos are aimed at the general public, so if you’re a SKYWARN spotter, share them with your friends and family members and watch them yourself for some valuable reminders.

SKYWARN

Significant outbreak forecast in tornado alley today

The Storm Prediction Center’s initial “Day One Convective Outlook” for today forecast “a significant severe weather event” from late this afternoon into this evening in parts of Oklahoma and Texas.

You can bet the roads in that area will be filled with storm chasers and spotters. Many will be broadcasting live video from their vehicles, so we can watch the action here in Indiana. You can find most of those video feeds on any of these sites: www.chasertv.com, www.severestudios.com or tvnweather.com.

This event also provides an opportunity to gain some early-season experience looking at the various weather and radar data as the storms develop.


	

	
	





	

				

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Still looks like severe weather tomorrow

		

			 		

	


		

		
The “Day Two Convective Outlook” that the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:57 a.m. EDT this morning continues to indicate a slight risk of severe weather tomorrow, Wednesday, April 10, over most of Indiana.






The outlook indicates the following probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point:


    

  • Central Indiana: 30 percent
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  • Northern and southern Indiana: 15 percent
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  • Extreme northern and southeastern Indiana: 5 percent
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 The SPC wrote, “A broad swath of organized severe potential is expected during the period, with scattered damaging winds, isolated large hail and a few tornadoes appearing probable.”

	

	
	





	

				

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First Indiana Severe Storm Risk of Season

		

			 		

	


		

		
Severe storm season could get underway in Indiana this week. Today, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a “Day 3 Convective Outlook” that outlines an area in which the SPC believes there is a slight risk of severe storms on Wednesday, April 10.  The slight risk area is indicated by yellow in the map below.


Convective outlook map


As you can see, the yellow area covers almost the entire state of Indiana. It also covers all of the counties IMO SKYWARN has designated as “quadrant two,” which is the quadrant I represent on the IMO SKYWARN board of directors.


What does this mean to you? I recommend the following:


    

  • Go to the SPC site tomorrow and check out the “Day Two Convective Outlook” for a more specific forecast on the risk of severe weather Wednesday. 
    • 

  • On Wednesday, check the SPC “Day One Convective Outlook” for even more specific information and if the risk of severe weather is still present in your area, be sure to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, your favorite broadcast station and/or other sources for any watches the SPC issues. 
    • 

  • If you’re a spotter, spend the next couple days making sure all your gear is ready to go for the season and review your training.
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 How are you preparing for storm season? Add a comment below!

	

	
	





	

				

			Traffic handling
		

		
Where ya’ from?

		

			 		

	


		

		
After a radiogram’s check, we transmit the place of origin, without introduction. This is almost always a city or town name, followed by a state or province. Immediately after the check we say the city name, and then say “I spell,” and then spell the city name phonetically (spelling can be omitted only if the city is well known and understood). Then we say the state name in full, even if it appears in the message as a two-letter abbreviation. For example, we say, “one five, Claypool, I spell, Charlie, Lima, alpha, Yankee, papa, Oscar, Oscar, Lima, Indiana.” We don’t say, “Place of origin, Claypool, I-N.” Next week: Time and date.


(This is the seventh in a series of short traffic-handling columns I submitted to the Kosciusko County ARES newsletter.) 

	

	
	





	

				

			SKYWARN
		

		
Tornado Look-Alike Appears over Fort Wayne

		

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Here’s a good training aid for SKYWARN spotters. What does this look like to you?


No, it’s not a tornado or even a funnel cloud. It’s a funnel-shaped rain shaft. You might call it, “virga,” but the technical definition of virga is rain shaft that evaporates before it reaches the ground and the bottom of this rain shaft (the illuminated part) appears to be reaching the ground. I took this photo in the early evening of March 31, 2013 in northeastern Fort Wayne, Indiana. 


During SKYWARN training, instructors warn spotters not to confuse rain shafts with funnel clouds. But never before have I seen a rain shaft that so closely mimics the appearance of a funnel cloud. 


How did I know it wasn’t a tornadic funnel?


    

  • It wasn’t spinning (sorry, I didn’t think to shoot video).
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  • The weather conditions weren’t right for tornadoes.
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  • I could see the rain in the illuminated part at the bottom.
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I forwarded this photo to my local NWS weather forecast office to use as a training aid. If you ever see something like this, I encourage you to photograph it and do the same.


Leave a comment below if you’ve ever seen something that looks like funnel cloud or a tornado but wasn’t.

	

	
	

		
			
		

	

	





		
Severe weather, ham radio & anything else I feel like writing about