Slight risk of severe storms in much of Indiana today — Damaging wind greatest threat

1300Z Day 1 convective outlook categorical risk map
Risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Red shading: Moderate risk. Yellow: Slight risk. Green: Thunderstorms not forecast to reach severe criteria. Highlighted counties: Northern Indiana NWS office county warning area. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 8:36 a.m. EDT.

See an update to this story.

Much of Indiana has a slight risk of severe storms between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:36 a.m. EDT.

In Indiana, the greatest threat is damaging severe thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater, but meteorologists cannot rule out a tornado, especially in extreme southwestern Indiana.

Heavy rain is also possible throughout the state, as well as in Ohio and Michigan counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office.

As you can see on the map above, the slight risk area includes central, west-central, south-central and southwestern Indiana, including Lafayette, Indianapolis, Bloomington, Terre Haute and Evansville. As for the 37 counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office, the slight risk area includes only a small part of Cass County and most of White County.

Areas just outside the slight risk area, including Fort Wayne and the rest of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, could still have strong storms with heavy rain and gusty winds that fall just short of severe criteria.

1300Z Day 1 convective outlook sig. wind map
Black area: 10% or greater probability of wind gusts to 65 knots (75 mph) or greater within 25 miles of a point. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 8:36 a.m. EDT.

The risk of severe thunderstorms is much higher just to the south of Indiana, along the Mississippi River. That area, which includes Evansville, Ind., Paducah, Ken., Jonesboro and Pine Bluff, Ark., Memphis, Tenn., Tupelo and Jackson, Miss., and Monroe La. , have an enhanced risk of what the NWS calls “significant” damaging thunderstorms winds. The NWS defines “significant” in this case as gusts of 65 knots (75 mph) or greater.  If you have friends or relatives in that area, be sure to advise them to stay tuned to a reliable weather source throughout the day.

Out next look at today’s severe weather outlook comes when the SPC issues and updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook.” It’s due by 12:30 p.m. EDT.

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