SPC reduces tomorrow’s probability to no more than 30%

1730Z Day 2 convective outlook map
Probability of any form of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 8 a.m. tomorrow and 8 a.m. Thursday. Source: updated SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook” issued at 1:18 p.m. EDT

No part of the country has a severe weather probability of greater than 30 percent, according to an updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:18 p.m. EDT. The entire state of Indiana and all 37 counties in the county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office continue to have a slight risk of servere weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow and 8 a.m. EDT Thursdsay, with probabilities ranging form 15 to 30 times higher than a normal day for this time of year.

At midday, forecast models indicated a weaker low pressure system than previously expected. The latest thinking is that an organized squall line or multiple line segments will be the primary storm mode. Extensive clouds and precipitation early in the day should limit atmospheric instability and hamper the development of severe storms. Even so, damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds remain a possibility.

The SPC’s next outlook for tomorrow comes early tomorrow morning, when it issues it’s first “Day 1 Convective Outlook” of the day.

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