Slight risk area expands slightly in midday update

1630Z Day 1 Convective Outlook Map
Risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday. Yellow area: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Green: Thunderstorms but no severe storms expected. Source: NWS SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 12:29 p.m. EDT.

Slightly more of northwestern Indiana now has a slight risk of severe weather, along with all of the rest of Indiana and parts of nearby states, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 12:29 p.m. EDT.

The only parts of Indiana not in the updated slight risk area are extreme northwestern Porter County and approximately the northern half of Lake County.

The threats are still damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds and large hair, with probabilities of both remaining at 15 percent within 25 miles of a point.

Meteorologists expect the northern portion of a cluster of thunderstorms that were in Illinois and east-central Missouri at midday to develop northeastward and merge with another band of thunderstorms that was developing over southeastern Lake Michigan. That conglomeration of storms is forecast to move eastward across southern Lower Michigan, Indiana and Illinois through the afternoon. Atmospheric conditions should support organized multi-cell thunderstorm systems with accompanying risks for a few damaging wind gusts and large hail.

1:20 p.m. regional radar image

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