Midday update continues severe risk for Sunday

1:30 p.m. EDT Day 2 convective outlook probability map
Probabilities of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT July 27 and 8 a.m. EDT July 28. Brown area: 5 percent (less than “slight risk”). Yellow: 15 percent (low end of “slight risk”). Red: 30 percent (high end of “slight risk”). Purple: 45 percent (“moderate risk”). Dark shaded area outlined in black: 10 percent or greater risk of significant (sig.) severe weather. Highlighted counties: County warning area of northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook,” 1:30 p.m. EDT

Approximately the eastern half of Indiana and a large part of western and northern Ohio continue to have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (Sun.) and 8 a.m. EDT Monday, according to an updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:30 p.m. EDT.

The slight risk area includes Fort Wayne and all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two. A large part of central and southern Ohio has a moderate risk of severe weather. And a slightly larger part of Ohio has a 10 percent or greater risk of “significant” severe weather, which the SPC defines as any one of the following: tornadoes capable of producingĀ  EF2 or greater damage, damaging straight-line winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or two-inch-diameter or larger hail.

A “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:45 p.m. indicates thatĀ  the primary threats Sunday are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds and large hail. Any severe storms that form tomorrow are mostly likely in the afternoon and might require another activation of SKYWARN storm spotters.

The next SPC outlook for Sunday is due at 2 a.m. EDT, when the Center issues its first “Day 1 Convective Outlook” of the day.

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