See an important update to this story: Latest outlook increases wind risk
The northern three fourths of Indiana, as well as large areas of other states, have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2:10 a.m.
The slight risk area includes the entire 37-county warning area of the northern Indiana NWS office.
In Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, the primary threats are damaging straight-line winds of 50 knots (58 mph) or more and hail of one inch in diameter or larger. The probability of either happening within 25 miles of a point is 15 percent. The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point in Indiana, Michigan and Ohio is two percent. Read more about outlook probabilities.
The numbers are a little higher to the west. Parts of Illinois, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota and the Dakotas — while still in a slight-risk area — have a 30 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds and large hail and a five percent probability of a tornado.
SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon or tonight, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:52 a.m.
Anyone in the slight risk area should have a way to be informed of any watches or warnings that the NWS issues today, especially if they are involved in outdoor activities.
The SPC will update its convective outlooks for today by 9 a.m. and again at 12:30 p.m., 4 p.m. and 9 p.m. EDT.