A now stationary front hanging along the Indiana-Michigan line is forecast to slowly move south today. As daytime heating occurs, thunderstorms should form and mature along and south of the front, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:59 a.m. EDT.
Available moisture (dew points in the 60s) and atmospheric instability (forecast to be above 1,000 j/kg by 1 p.m. EDT) might allow for pulse-type storms and perhaps some multicell storms capable of locally damaging winds and perhaps marginal hail. Wind shear today, however, is insufficient to support even a slight risk of severe thunderstorms in the convective outlook.
The northern Indiana NWS office agrees that an isolated strong to severe storm and heavy rainfall are possible this afternoon and evening anywhere in its 37-county warning area, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” the office issued at 5:40 a.m. EDT. The outlook indicates, however, that spotter activation is not anticipated.