Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms possible today in northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio

Mesoscale discussion map

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon as a pre-frontal air mass gradually destabilizes. Though a few marginally severe hail or wind events will be possible with stronger cells, a watch is not anticipated, according to a mesoscale discussion the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:37 a.m. EDT.

Radar showed thunderstorms gradually increasing in a band from southern lower Michigan south-southwestward into southwestern Indiana, along a slowly advancing surface cold front. Ahead of the front and storms, the atmosphere is becoming moderately unstable and sunshine is heating moist air, with dew points are in the upper 60s.

Although the thermodynamic environment will support additional increases in storm coverage and/or intensity, the high-altitude winds will limit widespread severe potential. As such, somewhat weakly organized storms are expected. Thus, with only an isolated severe risk expected, a watch will likely remain unnecessary across the region.