Almost the entire state of Indiana, including most northeastern counties, has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 8 a.m. EDT this morning and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow morning, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 7:50 a.m. today. The storms are mostly likely this afternoon and through this evening.
The main threat is damaging straight-line winds and large hail. The Indiana portion of the slight risk area has only a two percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point (less than a “slight” risk) and a 15 percent probability of either of the following within 25 miles of a point: damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or greater or one inch diameter or larger hail. Remember that compared the precipitation probabilities we see all the time, 15 percent might not seem impressive, but it’s probably at least 10 times greater than our normal probability for this date. Read more about severe weather probabilities
As I write this, the sky is overcast, which limits the potential for severe storms later today. But if the clouds break up later, the risk of severe weather will rise as the amount of sunshine increases.
As you can see on the map above right, the slight risk area covers almost all of Indiana, with the few exceptions including the northernmost tier of counties (Steuben west to Lake), and a few counties in extreme southeastern Indiana (near Cincinnati). In IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, the slight risk area includes all Indiana counties and Paulding and Van Wert Counties of Ohio.
SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed by this afternoon and evening, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:27 a.m. EDT.
What to do with this information
Make sure that if the NWS issues any watches or warnings today, you’ll know about it. If you won’t be near your weather alert radio for any part of the day or evening, keep a television or broadcast radio tuned to a local station. You can also receive watches and warnings numerous other ways (see my earlier blog, “Better alternatives to tornado sirens“).
If you’re a trained NWS storm spotter, check your gear and fuel up your vehicle this morning, so you’ll be ready to go, should spotter activation occur this afternoon or evening.