SPC updates Tuesday severe risk scenario

Day 2 convective outlook map
Risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday and 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday. Yellow area: Slight risk. Green area: Non-severe thunderstorms.

Much of eastern Indiana and almost all of Ohio remains under a slight risk of severe weather from 8 a.m. EDT Tuesday to 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, according to an updated Day 2 Convective Outlook the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:29 p.m. EDT.

Tomorrow afternoon, some surface heating in the wake of thunderstorms earlier in the day should provide sufficient buoyancy for isolated severe storms with damaging winds and severe hail. Some tornado risk might evolve from parts of middle Tennessee to the Ohio valley and possibly Lower Michigan, but this will be contingent on more appreciable daytime atmospheric destabilization, for which uncertainty remains.

Our next look at tomorrow’s serve weather risk will come at about 2 a.m. EDT tomorrow, when the SPC issues its first Day 1 Convective Outlook for the period.