|Brown area: 5% probability (less than “slight” risk) of severe weather within 25 miles of a point. Yellow: 15%. Red: 30%. Hatched area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather (F2 or greater tornadoes, damaging winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or large hail 2″ or greater in diameter.)|
The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued a revised Day 2 Convective Outlook at 12:11 p.m. EST which removes northern Indiana from tomorrow’s slight risk of severe thunderstorms.
In the new Outlook, no part of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two has a 30 percent probability of severe weather tomorrow. Jay and Blackford Counties, however, continue to have a 15 percent probability of severe weather.
Since early this morning, the SPC has determined that the substantial snow pack that remains across parts of northern Illinois, southern lower Michigan and northern Indiana and Ohio will limit severe weather potential north of the I-70 corridor by creating a stable layer of air near the surface, limiting buoyancy and the ability to form the strong updrafts needed for severe thunderstorms.
In addition, the new Outlook adds an area of significant severe weather that includes some of the southern-most Indiana counties and the western half of Kentucky. The SPC defines significant severe weather as F2 or greater tornadoes, damaging winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or large hail 2″ or greater in diameter.
Meanwhile, a risk of flooding remains in place for northern Indiana, southern lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio.