|Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point.|
The risk of severe weather in Indiana today and tonight is less than slight, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:47 a.m. EDT. The outlook covers the period from 9 a.m. EDT today to 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow.
The outlook indicates that most of Indiana has a five percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 58 mph or higher within 25 miles of a point. But five percent is not enough to warrant use of the slight risk category. In most of eastern Michigan and a very small part of northwestern Ohio, however, the probability of those severe thunderstorm winds is 15 percent, so the SPC considers those areas to have a slight risk of severe weather.
Yesterday, you might have heard that some of northeastern Indiana would be at slight risk today, but by early this morning, it became clear to SPC meteorologists that severe weather is much less likely in Indiana than previously forecast.
That said, do not rule out the possibility of an isolated severe thunderstorm this afternoon and/or evening. And even if no storms become strong enough to rank as severe, locally heavy rainfall could cause flooding, especially in areas that received rain yesterday, according to the Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:49 a.m. EDT.