New! Slight risk comes to northern Indiana after all

See an update to this post.

Map from 1230 p.m. EDT Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC Day 1 Categorical Outlook, issued 12:23 p.m. EDT. Valid 12:30 p.m. EDT June 27 through 8 a.m. EDT June 28. Green area: general thunderstorms. Yellow area: slight risk of severe weather.

As a result of changing conditions, much of northern Indiana and northwestern Ohio are now at slight risk of severe weather this afternoon and this evening. In an updated Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 12:23 p.m. EDT, the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center extended to the east the area of slight risk. As you can see on the map above, the slight risk area (yellow) now includes much of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, including Allen County, Indiana and its surrounding counties. The only quadrant two counties of which significant portions are not included are Jay County, Indiana and Allen County, Ohio. Also under slight risk: the southern half of Michigan, the northeastern corner of Illinois and the eastern half of Wisconsin.

The above-mentioned slight risk area has a no measurable risk of tornadoes and a 15 percent probability of each the following occurring within 25 miles of a point: thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 58 mph or greater and one-inch-diameter hail or larger.

The latest outlook indicates that weak to moderate instability and strengthening changes in wind direction and speed with altitude (shear) might contribute to scattered strong and/or severe storm development – including a couple of supercells — today into tonight.

Spotters: Subsequent to the updated convective outlook mentioned above, the northern Indiana NWS offfice issued an updated Hazardous Weather Outlook at 12:50 p.m. that indicates spotter activation might be needed this afternoon.