|Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. (More Info)|
The entire state of Indiana, including surrounding areas, has a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:45 a.m. EDT. The greatest threats are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds and hail of up to one inch in diameter. The hail threat is the same throughout the state (15 percent probability of one-inch or larger hail within 25 miles of a point) but the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 58 mph or greater is twice as high in the southern half of Indiana (30 percent probability) as in the northern half (15 percent). See the map at left. Widespread heavy rainfall is also likely today, which could lead to flooding.
Michael Lewis, warning coordination meteorologist at the northern Indiana NWS office, sent spotters an email this morning in which he points out that the flooding threat is significant today, especially over northwesten Indiana and southwestern lower Michigan as the thunderstorms continue to form in the same area (one after another, like a train). Later today, meteorologists expect heavier rain to develop further south. Regarding the timing of any severe weather, Lewis writes that the initial threat will last through late morning along and north of US 30. Additional development is likely again this afternoon along and south of US 24.
Whether we get severe weather will depend a lot on how much sunshine we get today. Without the ground heating that sunshine provides, the atmosphere might not become unstable enough to support severe storms.
Nonetheless, the northern Indiana NWS office has indicated via its Hazardous Weather Outlook that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed late this afternoon and this evening. The office also reminded spotters that it will appreciate any reports of significant flooding.
The SPC will update its convective outlook by 12:30 p.m. EDT.