Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Top map: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher. Middle map: Probability of one inch diameter or larger hail. Bottom map: Probability of a tornado. Learn more about probability numbers.

See an update to this post.

The Northern third of Indiana, the northwestern quarter of Ohio, all of lower Michigan and large parts of Illinois and Indiana (see maps at left) have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:45 a.m. EDT. The slight risk area includes all counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office, except Blackford and Jay Counties.

In northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio, including counties in IMO SKYWARN quadrant two (again, except Blackford and Jay), there’s a 15 percent probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher or one-inch-diameter hail or larger within 25 miles of any point in the risk area. In the identified parts of Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio, there’s a two percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point. Learn more about these probability numbers.

Thunderstorms are forecast develop in northwestern Indiana during the mid to late afternoon hours today, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at  4:59 a.m. EDT. Those storms should shift southeastward across far northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio during the late afternoon and evening hours. Additional storms might develop later tonight, as a cold front gets closer.

SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed this afternoon and tonight. Because Three Rivers Festival is going on in downtown Fort Wayne, prompt spotter reports of wind damage and hail 10 to 15 miles upwind of downtown Fort Wayne will be particularly important (so there’s time to get warnings to the people downtown).

The SPC will update the Day 1 Convective Outlook at around 12:30 p.m. EDT. As my workload permits, I’ll post updated information on this blog throughout the day.