Probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point between 12:30 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Top map: Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher. Middle map: Probability of one inch diameter or larger hail. Bottom map: Probability of a tornado. Learn more about probability numbers.

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) made slight changes to the geography of severe weather risk areas in the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook it issued at 12:30 p.m. EDT.

A slight risk of severe weather continues for northern Indiana, northwestern Ohio and most of lower Michigan between 12:30 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow. Damaging straight-line winds and hail remain the primary threats, with a 15 percent probability of each. The southern edge of the risk area, however, moved slightly north. As as result, the following counties covered by the northern Indiana NWS office are now outside the risk area: Grant, Blackford, Jay, southern Adams, southern Wells and southern Allen (Ohio).

Other changes include the reduction of the damaging wind probability for southern Michigan from 30 percent to 15 percent and the removal of Indiana and Ohio from the two percent risk of tornado.

Apart from the changes above, the situation remains pretty much the same as described in my earlier blog post.