Meteorologists at the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) are keeping their eyes on a possibly growing risk of severe weather in northern Indiana, according to the updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” the SPC issued at 12:28 p.m. EDT.

A north-northeast- to south-southwest-oriented band of thunderstorms moving through the Chicagoland area as of 12 p.m. EDT exhibited some forward-propagating characteristics with isolated wind damage reported along its track. By afternoon, a subset of these storms will likely merge with a down-shear cluster of slower-moving thunderstorms ongoing over Indiana, according to the 12:28 p.m. outlook.

Daytime heating, coupled with the presence of a very moist boundary layer, will once again yield a strongly unstable air mass ahead of these storm clusters, with mixed-layer convective available potential energy (MLCAPE) approaching 3,500 to 4,500 joules per kilogram. And similar to yesterday, meteorologists expect storm motions to become more southerly with time, as activity is drawn into the backside of a mid-level high pressure system centered over the Ozarks. Vertical wind shear will once again remain weak, which should inhibit severe storm development. But the presence of the strong instability and high moisture content will foster intense water-loaded downdrafts capable of damaging surface winds.

The 12:28 p.m. “Day 1 Convective Outlook” does not indicate any risk of severe weather in this area (or any other part of the country), but meteorologist might upgrade the area to a “slight risk” in the 4 p.m. EDT convective outlook update, if by then it is more apparent that an organized cold pool and associated greater severe threat will materialize.