Extreme northern Indiana (shaded in red on the map above) – from Gary to Angola – has an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms tonight, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 12:16 p.m. EDT. Parts of Indiana farther south have either a slight risk (yellow shading) or marginal risk (brown shading) of severe storms.
The greatest threat is damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or greater. The enhanced risk area has a 30 percent probability of such winds. The normal probability in that area at this time of year is approximateley two percent, according to climatology data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. That means today’s probability in the enhanced risk area is as much as 15 times normal.
Farther south, probabilities range from 15 percent (7.5 times normal) in an area that includes Lafayette, Logansport, Rochester, Kokomo, Warsaw, Marion and Fort Wayne; to five percent (2.5 times normal) in an area that includes Terre Haute, Indianapolis, Winchester and Portland; to less than five percent (around normal for this time of year).
Any severe storms that threaten Indiana are most likely this evening and during the overnight hours.
Because severe thunderstorms can be deadly, even when they don’t produce tornadoes, it would be wise for people in the northern half of the state to make sure their weather alert radios are working properly before they go to bed tonight.
SKYWARN storm spotters should be prepared for possible activation this evening and tonight.