The entire states of Indiana and Ohio, plus the southern half of lower Michigan are at slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EST Sunday, Nov. 17 and 8 a.m. EST Monday, Nov. 18, according to a Day 3 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 3:30 a.m. EST today.

Forecasters say a deepening low pressure system will move northeastward from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region Sunday afternoon. A cold front will trail from the low, while a warm front lifts northward through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region.

The potential exists for storms ahead of the fronts to develop into supercells, but the extent of any tornado threat will depend on how much the atmosphere is able to destabilize, according to the convective outlook. And ongoing showers and cloud cover might limit that destabilization. Nonetheless, other storms will likely evolve into lines along the cold front and present a threat for widespread damaging straight-line wind.

SKYWARN storm spotters and others who are concerned about severe weather should be prepared to be aware of any storm watches or warnings that the NWS might issue Sunday. Our next look at the potential for severe weather will come with the SPC’s Day 2 Convective Outlook that’s due early Saturday morning.