Slight risk of severe weather remains in 4 p.m. update

A slight risk of severe weather continues for most of Indiana, extreme southern Michigan and most of Ohio, according to an updated Day 1 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 4:02 p.m. EDT. The slight risk areas in the latest update are essentially the same as they were in the 9 a.m. update. The main difference is that extreme western and southwestern Indiana now have a slightly enhanced threat of a tornado.

The northern Indiana NWS office indicated in an infographic a short while ago (see my earlier post) that any severe weather in northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio is not expected to occur before 10 p.m.

In addition, in an email sent to SKYWARN storm spotters at 12:13 p.m. EDT, NWS Warning Coordination Meteorologist Michael Lewis wrote that the day’s steady rainfall had greatly reduced the risk of severe weather but that isolated severe thunderstorms remained possible along and slightly ahead of an approaching cold front. The most likely severe threat is wind gusts of 55 mph to 60 mph. Forecaster expect no hail.

The area of greatest threat is along, south and east of U.S. 24.

Lewis said the following storm impacts are possible; branches down, weakened and dead trees down, and scattered power outages. Also, damage to weak and compromised buildings and other structures is possible.

There’s also a flooding threat. Additional rainfall amounts through midnight of one to two inches (with isolated higher amounts with thunderstorms) are possible. Significant leaf fall has caused drain blockages and subsequent street flooding.