Update: Moderate risk of severe weather in Indiana tomorrow

This is an update to my post from earlier today.

In its early afternoon “Day Two Convective Outlook,” the NWS Storm Prediction Center (SPC) strengthened its severe weather forecast for tomorrow, Thursday, April 18. The new outlook indicates that about half of Indiana has a moderate risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. April 18 and 8 a.m. April 19. The moderate risk area includes approximately the western half of the northern Indiana NWS office’s county warning area. In IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, only Whitley County is in the moderate risk area as of this outlook. The remainder of quadrant two is in a slight risk area. See the map below.

Convective outlook map

The probabilistic outlook is also more impressive than it was this morning. It increases the probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point to 45 percent in about half of Indiana. That probability remains 30 percent for most of the remainder of Indiana, including all Indiana counties of quadrant two, as well as Van Wert and Paulding Counties of Ohio. See the map below.
Probabilities map from convective outlook
This is definitely a situation to keep our eyes on! My recommendations remain the same as in my earlier post today.

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