PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
…FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST IS DOWN…
THE FORT WAYNE NOAA WEATHER RADIO BROADCAST…WXJ-58 AT 162.550
MHZ…IS OFF THE AIR. TECHNICIANS HAVE BEEN NOTIFIED OF THE OUTAGE
AND RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. SURROUNDING
BROADCASTS INCLUDE ANGOLA /KXI-94 AT 162.425 MHZ/…MARION /WXM-98
AT 162.425 MHZ/…MUNCIE /KJY-93 AT 162.425 MHZ/ AND CRIDERSVILLE
/WXJ-90 AT 162.400 MHZ. WE APOLOGIZE FOR ANY INCONVENIENCE THIS
MAY CAUSE.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 446
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN INDIANA
MICHIGAN
NORTHWESTERN OHIO
LAKE ERIE
LAKE HURON
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
900 PM EDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ALPENA MICHIGAN TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT WAYNE
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 445...
DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND BECOME
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING A SEWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
INTERACTS WITH THE DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
Almost all of Indiana and Ohio have a slight risk of severe weather between 9 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:29 a.m. EDT.
The primary threats in the slight risk area are damaging straight-line winds of 58 mph or greater and/or hail of one inch or more in diameter. A small tornado risk also exists.
Any storms that form in the northern Indiana NWS county warning area, are most likely from midday to afternoon, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana office issued at 6:14 a.m. EDT. That outlook also indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed today.
As you can see on the map above, the slight risk area, which includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two. The quadrant two counties have the following probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point:
Tornado: 2 percent
Damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater: 15 percent
Hail of one inch or more in diameter: 15 percent.
The next SPC outlook for today is due by 12:30 p.m. EDT.
Risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT July 27 and 8 a.m. EDT July 28. Green area: Thunderstorms, not expected to be severe. Yellow: Slight risk of severe weather. Red: Moderate risk of severe weather. Highlighted counties: County warning area of northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 1:57 a.m. EDT
Part of northeastern Indiana and Northwestern Ohio have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow, according to the “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:57 a.m. EDT.
The primary threats in the slight risk area are damaging straight-line winds of 58 mph or greater and/or hail of one inch or more in diameter. A small tornado risk also exists. The outlook indicates some forecaster uncertainty, however.
Any storms that form in the northern Indiana NWS county warning area, are most likely from midday to afternoon, according to the “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana office issued at 6:14 a.m. EDT. That outlook also indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed today.
As you can see on the map above, Fort Wayne is barely in the slight risk area, which includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two except Whitley County and northern Allen County, Ind. The quadrant two counties that are in the slight risk area have the following probabilities of severe weather within 25 miles of a point:
Tornado: 2 percent
Damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds of 58 mph or greater: 15 percent
Hail of one inch or more in diameter: 15 percent.
The next SPC outlook for today is due by 9 a.m. EDT.
Meteorologists no longer expect severe weather in northeastern Indiana or northwestern Ohio tonight, according to an updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 8:57 p.m. EDT. The revised slight risk area includes only two of the 37 counties covered by the northern Indiana NWS office — Blackford and Jay. In the other 35 counties, thunderstorms are forecast but meteorologists do not expect those storms to be severe.
Severe weather is still possible, however, tomorrow (Sun.) afternoon in all parts of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, including the Fort Wayne area, according to the SPC’s most recent “Day 2 Convective Outlook.”
Probabilities of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT July 27 and 8 a.m. EDT July 28. Brown area: 5 percent (less than “slight risk”). Yellow: 15 percent (low end of “slight risk”). Red: 30 percent (high end of “slight risk”). Purple: 45 percent (“moderate risk”). Dark shaded area outlined in black: 10 percent or greater risk of significant (sig.) severe weather. Highlighted counties: County warning area of northern Indiana NWS office. Source: SPC “Day 2 Convective Outlook,” 1:30 p.m. EDT
Approximately the eastern half of Indiana and a large part of western and northern Ohio continue to have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (Sun.) and 8 a.m. EDT Monday, according to an updated “Day 2 Convective Outlook” the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued at 1:30 p.m. EDT.
The slight risk area includes Fort Wayne and all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two. A large part of central and southern Ohio has a moderate risk of severe weather. And a slightly larger part of Ohio has a 10 percent or greater risk of “significant” severe weather, which the SPC defines as any one of the following: tornadoes capable of producing EF2 or greater damage, damaging straight-line winds with speeds greater than 65 knots (75 mph), or two-inch-diameter or larger hail.
A “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:45 p.m. indicates that the primary threats Sunday are damaging straight-line thunderstorm winds and large hail. Any severe storms that form tomorrow are mostly likely in the afternoon and might require another activation of SKYWARN storm spotters.
The next SPC outlook for Sunday is due at 2 a.m. EDT, when the Center issues its first “Day 1 Convective Outlook” of the day.
No part of the U.S. continued to have a moderate risk of severe weather after the National Weather Service Storm (NWS) Prediction Center (SPC) issued its 4 p.m. update to its “Day 1 Convective Outlook.” The entire state of Indiana, however, along with most of Ohio and all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two, continue to have a slight risk for severe weather between 4 p.m. today and 8 a.m. tomorrow.
A meteorologist at the Northern Indiana NWS office shared with emergency managers and news media this afternoon that additional storms might enter northern Indiana around 9 p.m. or 10 p.m. EDT this evening and reach northwestern Ohio by midnight. He indicated that the greatest potential for severe weather would likely be approximately along and south of U.S. 30.
A “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued at 4:45 p.m. indicates that damaging winds, isolated hail and localized flash flooding are possible with tonight’s storms. The outlook also indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed tonight.
The SPC will issue its next update to the outlook for today by 9 p.m. EDT.
Anyone who is planning outdoor activities today wants to know, as closely as possible, when the weather will get bad. In a blog post, WANE-TV meteorologist Rob Lydick suggests the first round might arrive between 3 p.m. and 6 p.m. EDT, followed by a second round around sunset and a more significant round late tonight or overnight.
If you don’t have a weather alert radio that will wake you in the middle of the night before a severe storm hits your home, this afternoon would be a good time to shop for one!
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point. Source: SPC “Day 1 Convective Outlook,” 12:28 p.m. EDT July 26.
An updated “Day 1 Convective Outlook” from the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center indicates no remarkable changes in the severe weather outlook for this afternoon and tonight in Indiana.
The entire state of Indiana and all if IMO SKYWARN quadrant two continues to have at least a slight risk of severe weather between 12:30 p.m. EDT this afternoon and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow. Much of central and southern Indiana continues to have a moderate risk.
No part of Indiana, however, now has any more than a 2 percent probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. With the previous outlook, part of southern Indiana had a 5 percent tornado probability.
The next update to the outlook for today is due by 4 p.m. EDT.
