Most of Indiana (shaded in brown and green on the Tornado Outlook map, above) has an elevated risk of a tornado this afternoon and evening, according to an outlook that the NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center issued at 3:56 p.m. ET. Aproximately the northwestern half of the state (with black hatch marks on the Tornado Outlook map) also has a 14% probability that any tornado that forms will be “intense;” capable of damage rated at least EF-2 on the enhanced Fujita scale.

The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point in the brown-shaded area, including Gary, South Bend, Lafayette and Terre Haute, is at least six times what’s normal in that area at this time of year. In the green-shaded area, including Fort Wayne, Muncie, Indianapolis, Bloomington, Jasper and Evansville, the probability is at least twice what’s normal at this time of year.

A similar part of the state (shaded in yellow and brown on the Severe Wind Outlook map, above) has an elevated probability of damaging, straight-line thunderstorm winds. In the yellow-shaded area, which includes Gary, South Bend, Fort Wayne, Indianapolis, Terre Haute, Bloomington, Vincennes and Evansville, today’s probability of damaging thunderstorm winds is at least 15 times normal. In addition, most that area a 10% probability of thundestorm winds or gusts of at least 75 mph. That’s enough wind to blow down power lines, uproot large trees, and overturn recreational vehicles and poorly anchored mobile homes.

In the brown-shaded area of the Severe Wind Outlook map, the probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or gusts is at least 5 times normal.

Fortunately, the risk of severe hail (one inch or larger) is negligible today in all but the extreme northwest corner of Indiana (shaded in brown on the Severe Hail Outlook map).

Severe storms are most likely between 5 p.m. and midnight, according to information published by the Northern Indiana and Indianapolis National Weather Service offices.

It’s another good evening to pay close attention to information provided by local NWS offices and have reliable ways to receive watches and warnings. It’s also important to remember that people have died from severe thunderstorms without tornados. When a tree falls on a house, it doesn’t care whether it got hit by a tornado or by straight-line thunderstorm winds!

The National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) significantly escalated tomorrow’s tornado risk in Indiana with an outlook it issued at 1:30 p.m. ET today, April 1.

Approximately the southern three fourths of the state (shaded yellow on the Tornado Outlook map, above), which now includes Lafayette, Muncie and Fort Wayne, has at least 10% probability of a tornado within 25 miles of any point on April 2, according to the revised SPC outlook. A 10% probability is as much as 50 times what’s normal in Indiana at this time of year.

The same area also has a 10% or greater probability of a “significant” tornado, as indicated by black hatch marks on the Tornado Outlook map. NWS defines a “significant” tornado as one containing tornado wind speeds of at least 111 mph, capable of doing EF-2 damage on the enhanced Fujita scale.

All of Indiana continues to have a chance of hurricane-force straight-line thunderstorm winds tomorrow.

The red shading on the Severe Wind Outlook map above indicates that the entire state has at least a 30% chance of damaging thunderstorm winds or gusts of 58 mph or greater within 25 miles of any point tomorrow. The black hatch marks on the map indicate that the entire state also has at least a 10% probability that any severe thunderstorm that forms could have “significant” damaging winds or gusts of 75 mph or stronger, which could do as much damage as a weak tornado.

For most of Indiana, a 10% probability of significant damaging thunderstorm winds is 100 times what’s normal for this time of year.

As if the thunderstorm wind and tornado risks weren’t enough, the entire state also has an elevated risk of large hail, some of which could be two inches wide or larger. Northern Indiana (shaded in yellow on the Severe Hail Outlook map, above) has at least a 15% probability of one inch or larger hail within 25 miles of any point. The remainder of the state (shaded red) has at least a 30% probability of one inch hail. Black hatch marks on the Severe Hail Outlook map indicate at least a 10% probability of “significant,” two-inch hail.

The SPC outlook indicates a warm front will move through the state tomorrow, bringing warm, moist air and the atmospheric instability that severe storms require. A cold front with storms in front of it will then move in. Those storms could reach Indiana by late afternoon. Timing is important, because severe storms will be most likely where the warm front has had time to bring in that warm, moist air and any sunshine that occurs has had time to warm the earth’s surface. The warmer and more humid the air gets tomorrow where you are, the more likely severe storms will be.

If you’ll be in Indiana tomorrow, it is imperative that you have multiple, reliable ways to receive NWS watches and warnings, including severe thunderstorm warnings (because some thunderstorm winds could do as much damage as a weak tornado). Remember that emergency managers use the term “outdoor warning sirens” for what people commonly call “tornado sirens” because the sirens are not designed to be heard indoors. Also, most communities don’t activate sirens for severe thunderstorm warnings, even if the thunderstorm has hurricane-force winds.

Here’s a link to a blog about the top five ways to get severe weather warnings. If you don’t have a NOAA Weather Radio receiver, you have time to buy one, which I highly recommend doing.

As with Sunday’s weather, you might get lucky. It’s possible that none of these bad things will happen where you are. It’s wise, however, to be prepared, because the NWS says the probabilities are unusually high for the entire state.