Below is a PDF file containing the slides from my DMR presentation at the Fort Wayne Hamfest November 19, 2022.
High probability of very severe weather in Indiana today
Damaging, straight-line thunderstorm winds — the kind that can knock down whole trees and cause widespread power outages and road blockages — are likely in Indiana this afternoon and evening, especially in extreme southwestern counties (shaded purple in the map above), according to a convective outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center issued at 9 a.m. ET today.
The 45% probability indicated on the map above compares to “normal” or “average” probability for this time of year of only 1%, acccording to climatology (weather history) data from the National Severe Storms Laboratory.
And in a large part of southern Indiana (shaded gray on the map below), any severe thundertorms that form could create wind gusts of 75 mph or stronger. That’s the same as a category one hurricane. The probability of that happening is 10 percent, or approximately 100 times the climatology norm of 0.1%
Tornadoes are also possible throughout Indiana and once again, the greatest risk is in the southwest (shaded yellow on the map below), where the probability is 10%, or about 25 times the climatology norm. The 5% probability in the rest of the state is about 12.5 times the norm for this time of year. So even though 10 and five are small numbers, they’re important in this context.
Any tornadoes that form in southwestern Indiana (shaded gray on the map below) have a 10% probability of doing damage rated EF-2 or higher on the enhanced Fujitsu scale. That’s about 50 times the climatology norm.
The entire state also has a risk of one-inch or larger hail, but as the map below indicates, the hail risk is lower than the straight-line wind risk.
It’s important for anyone in Indiana to have multiple ways to receive severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings today. Unfortunately, the Indianapolis NWS office reported this morning that three NOAA Weather Radio transmitters in southern Indiana were inoperative.
Update: The Indianapolis NWS office reported at 11:44 a.m. ET that all three transmitters had returned to service.
That makes multiple alerting methods even more important. People in that area shold probably keep a TV on, turned up, and tuned to a local station (i.e., not ESPN or Netflix!). Another idea is to install the free FEMA app on smartphones.
If your phone and other rechargeable devices are not fully charged, start charging them now.
If you’re a volunteer Skywarn storm spotter, prepare for activation this afternoon or evening.
NWS needs storm spotter photos
The National Weather Service (NWS) is preparing to revise the web page for its Skywarn® storm spotter program. The agency is seeking photographs to use on the revised web page.
Photographs should depict real-life, safe and responsible spotter activities. Examples include a ham radio operator holding a handheld radio while looking at the sky, or a spotter typing a message on a smart phone, etc. The ideal photos imply action (vs. portraits) and are set outdoors. Due to government policies, NWS declines to use photos of spotters sitting behind the steering wheel of a vehicle while using a mobile radio.
Skywarn volunteer Jay Farlow is gathering photos for a contact at NWS, so contributors should send the photos to arsw9lw@gmail.com by March 31. Contributors should provide contact information of each photographer, so the NWS can confirm it has permission to use the photos.
NWS Northern Indiana conducts partner webinar on coming winter storm
The Northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (IWX) conducted a webinar for its partners at 3:30 p.m. ET Monday, January 31, to discuss a winter storm forecasted to hit its area in the following days. Here is a summary of the information shared during the initial briefing and subsequent question-and-answer session.
Update: IWX later published on YouTube a recording of the briefing given during the webinar described here.
IWX meteorologist expected to upgrade the existing winter storm watch to a winter storm warning for at least part of the IWX forecast area by 3:30 p.m. ET Jan. 31. Update: IWX issued a winter storm warning for some of its counties at 3:21 p.m. ET. Visit the IWX web page for details.
IWX plans to issue a new multimedia briefing via YouTube Wednesday morning and conduct a second partner webinar Wednesday afternoon.
Forecasters expect the event to begin with a light wintery mix in South Bend Tuesday evening, with rain elsewhere, eventually changing to heavy snow in all areas, as indicated by the timeline graphic above.
Forecaster confidence on winter storm timing is high. Uncertainty is in the transition from rain/sleet/freezing rain to heavy snow, especially along and south of U.S. 24.
IWX shared the graphic above regarding snowfall total for the first of two rounds of snowfall and cautioned partners that the forecast accumulation numbers are very likely to change between now and the beginning of the storm.
IWX shared the graphic above regarding probabilities of heavy snowfall and commented that the storm could be on the order of a one-in-five-year or one-in-ten-year event.
Winds are not forecasted to be significant during this first round of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday. That snow will be fairliy wet and heavy and therefore unlikely to blow and drift.
IWX forecasts a lighter, drier snow Wednesday night through Thursday. Combined with wind gusts forecasted to reach as high as 35 mph, significant blowing and drifing of snow is forecast, especially on east-west roads in rural and open areas. Whiteout conditions are possible. Roads could drift back over shortly after snow plows pass through on Thursday.
Wind chills are forecasted to be below zero by Thursday night, causing a potential hazard for any motorists stranded in snow.
IWX forecasts ice accumulation to be brief in most areas, and not a great impact. Ice amounts will be less significant than heavy snow.
NCI Hamfest DMR presentation slides
Today, I gave an introductory presentation about ham radio DMR, how to find information about DMR repeaters in Indiana and the steps involved in programming a DMR radio with a new “codeplug.” As promised, you may get a PDF copy of my presentation slides by following the link below.
W9LW to lead DMR forum during NCI Hamfest
Are you, or is someone you know interested in getting started with DMR? Are you having trouble programming your DMR radio? Do you know where to find the needed information on every DMR repeater in Indiana?
The DMR forum during the North Central Indiana Hamfest in Peru Aug. 28 might be for you!
Hamfest planners invited me to lead a forum from 11 a.m. to noon. Below is a rough outline of what I plan to cover:
- Introduction to DMR.
- Talkgroups, DMR’s “virtual channels.”
- DMR networks, and how they’re different.
- Obtaining a DMR ID number.
- DMR repeaters: What you need to know and how to find out.
- Programming a DMR radio.
- Operating a DMR radio.
Share this info with anyone you know who’s interested in DMR.
W9LW’s TYT MD-380 codeplug programming guide
I have created a guide to help users of the TYT MD-380 handheld, DMR amateur radio create codeplugs for their radios.
The link below will provide the latest version of the document.
W9LW’s Anytone AT-D878UV codeplug programming guide
I have created a guide to help users of the Anytone AT-D878UV handheld, DMR amateur radio create codeplugs for their radios.
The link below will provide the latest version of the document, which I have updated since publishing the original version. Version 2.65, uploaded January 29, 2023, adds advice on matching the CPS version to the firmware version.
W9LW’s RD-5R codeplug programming guide
I have created a guide to help users of the Radioddity/Baofeng RD-5R and DM-5R handheld, DMR amateur radios create codeplugs for their radios.
Version 3 of this guide combines and updates two previous guides into a single document.
COVID-19 pandemic affects SKYWARN severe weather operations
Restrictions implemented to slow the spread of COVID-19 will affect one of the ways SKYWARN® storm spotters send reports to local National Weather Service (NWS) offices. Many NWS weather forecast offices (WFOs) have amateur (ham) radio equipment permanently installed. During severe weather events, volunteer ham radio operators operate that equipment to receive reports of tornadoes and other dangerous weather from fellow hams who are storm spotters.
Now, however, the NWS is forbidding anyone not directly connected with the agency from entering WFOs, according to NWS Northern Indiana warning coordination meteorologist Michael Lewis. That means that ham radio stations at WFOs are less likely to be on the air during severe weather events. Some NWS meteorologists have ham radio licenses and some of those might be able to sporadically operate WFO ham stations. But Lewis told me that to reduce exposure to disease, the NWS is trying to operate WFOs with as few people in the office as possible. This might mean that NWS meteorologists who have ham licenses will have no time to operate the ham radio equipment.
Ham radio operators will still be able to use their radios to report severe weather, but they’ll need someone other hams to relay those reports to their local WFOs. That’s where an internal NWS text chat system will be essential, Lewis said. The system is called NWSChat and access is limited a select population. That groups includes ham radio operators who serve as net control station operators. Local ham radio SKYWARN groups can (and should) designate such leaders to serve as liaisons between the radio networks and NWSChat.
Whether or not spotters have ham radio licenses, other ways to communicate reports continue to be available, including telephone calls to WFOs and Twitter tweets that include the appropriate WFO’s Twitter handle.
The voice communication app Zello can also be helpful to SKYWARN storm spotters. Unfortunately, Zello’s terms and conditions do not comply with federal government requirements, so NWS WFOs are prohibited from installing Zello on any government-owned devices. A specific Zello channel exists (“IWX SKYWARN”) for reports from areas covered by the Northern Indiana office. Because WFO staff are prohibited from using Zello, ham radio net control station operators, who have NWSChat accounts, plan to monitor the Zello channel as much as possible, to relay reports from spotters to the WFO.
All this could be tested tomorrow, March 19, when severe weather is forecast in much of Indiana.