Investing more money in tornado research would be a disaster

Tornado photo
Aurora, Mo. tornado, May 4, 2003 (NWS photo)

Meteorologist Eric Holthaus recently wrote an article for “Slate” in which he criticizes a bill in Congress that would require the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA, parent agency of the National Weather Service) to spend more on improving forecasts of “high impact weather events” like tornadoes and hurricanes.

On its face, the bill sounds like a good idea and you might wonder why anyone would oppose making tornado and hurricane forecasts better.

But Holthaus correctly writes that the bill would force NOAA to spend less on improving forecasts of lower-profile weather and climate disasters that, in aggregate, kill dozens of times more people per year.

I’ve noticed that it’s not unusual for lawmakers to pass bills that make it look to the general public like the we are better protected from some harm when those laws really don’t enhance our safety as much as they improve lawmakers’ chances for reelection. This appears to be an example of that.

I highly recommend that you read Holthaus’ article and then consider contacting your U.S. representative. Tell your congressman that the House should not pass H.R.2413, the “Weather Forecasting Improvement Act of 2014,” unless Congress also provides additional funding for its mandates, so that research into more deadly, lower-impact events does not suffer.

Flooding situation continues to improve

Swinney park flooding
The St. Mary’s River spills into Fort Wayne’s Swinney Park, midday, April 4, 2014. (W9LW photo)

The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued new statements at midday regarding river flooding in its area. In general, forecasts for flooding are now far less severe.

The NWS canceled the flood warning for the St. Mary’s River at the Muldoon Bridge gauge (just south and upstream of Fort Wayne).

The NWS revised the forecast for the Little River near Huntington from major flooding to minor flooding.

See the latest NWS flood statements.

River flooding remains forecast, even though overnight rain stayed south

Spy Run Creek backs up against the State Blvd. bridge in northern Fort Wayne at 4 p.m., April 3, 2014. (W9LW photo)

See an update to this post.

Heavy rain forecast overnight remained in southern parts of Indiana, which eased some flooding concerns in northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio. But although the potential for heavy rainfall in the area had diminished by early morning, meteorologists indicated that run-off from yesterday’s heavy rainfall will cause river flooding today. Flood warnings therefore remain in effect for many rivers in the area.

The worst problem continues to be in the Huntington area. As of 10:44 p.m. (the most recent NWS statements at the time of this writing), major flooding was forecast along the Little River. The river was forecast to rise to only 0.1 foot below the level at which extensive inundation and damage occurs, many primary roads and bridges close and many evacuations occur.

In Fort Wayne, moderate flooding was forecast along the St. Mary’s River, which was forecast to rise to six inches below the level at which extensive evacuations become necessary and primary roads and bridges are closed. Minor flooding was forecast along the Maumee and St. Joe Rivers. The Maumee was forecast to rise within 0.2 feet of the flood experienced Feb. 8, 2008. The St. Joe was forecast to rise as high as it did May 27, 2011.

Here is a link to the latest updates from the NWS on river flooding. Here is a link to an interactive map on which you can see the latest river gauge readings.

The National Weather Service is requesting reports of flooding, including roads blocked by high water. You can make the reports on Twitter by including the hash tag #nwsiwx (include a photo, when possible) or follow this link to fill out a Web form.

Although river flooding remained forecast, At 3:30 a.m. EDT, the northern Indiana National Weather Service office allowed an areal flood warning for urban areas and small streams to expire for the following counties: Allen (Ind. and Ohio), southeastern Defiance, Paulding, Van Wert, Henry, Putnam, Blackford, Jay, Grant, southeastern Cass, Wells, Adams, southern Miami, southern Huntington, southern Wabash and Allen.

At 3:45 a.m., the NWS canceled the areal flood watch that had been in effect for the following Ohio counties: Fulton and Williams and the following Indiana counties: De Kalb, Elkhart, Fulton, Kosciusko, Lagrange, Noble, Pulaski, Steuben and White.

At 6:46 a.m., the NWS canceled the remainder of its areal flood watch, which included the following Ohio counties: Allen, Defiance, Henry, Paulding, Putnam and Van Wert and the following Indiana counties: Adams, Allen, Blackford, Cass, Grant, Huntington, Jay, Miami, Wabash, Wells and Whitley.

NWS issues flood watch for large area of Ind., Ohio

Flood watch map
Counties outlined in green are under a flood watch (below) until 11 a.m. EDT Friday
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
234 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...

.WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES FELL THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA
AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND HAS RESULTED IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER MISSOURI IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
MORE WIDESPREAD LOWLAND FLOODING.

ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-PULASKI-FULTON IN-
KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-
WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- 
 
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELKHART...GOSHEN...NAPPANEE...
LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...SHIPSHEWANA...ANGOLA...FREMONT...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...ALBION...AUBURN...GARRETT...WINAMAC...
FRANCESVILLE...MEDARYVILLE...ROCHESTER...AKRON...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...SYRACUSE...MENTONE...COLUMBIA CITY...TRI-LAKES...
SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...NEW HAVEN...MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...
MONON...LOGANSPORT...ROYAL CENTER...PERU...GRISSOM AFB...MEXICO...
WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...ROANOKE...BLUFFTON...
OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...GAS CITY...UPLAND...
HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DUNKIRK...BRYAN...
WAUSEON...ARCHBOLD...FAYETTE...SWANTON...DEFIANCE...SHERWOOD...
HICKSVILLE...NAPOLEON...DESHLER...LIBERTY CENTER...PAULDING...
ANTWERP...MELROSE...OTTAWA...PANDORA...KALIDA...FORT JENNINGS...
VAN WERT...DELPHOS...OHIO CITY...LIMA...SPENCERVILLE

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN INDIANA...
ADAMS...ALLEN IN...BLACKFORD...CASS IN...DE KALB...ELKHART...
FULTON IN...GRANT...HUNTINGTON...JAY...KOSCIUSKO...LAGRANGE...
MIAMI...NOBLE...PULASKI...STEUBEN...WABASH...WELLS...WHITE AND
WHITLEY. IN NORTHWEST OHIO...ALLEN OH...DEFIANCE...FULTON OH...
HENRY...PAULDING...PUTNAM...VAN WERT AND WILLIAMS.

* THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

* ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE
SIGNIFICANT AND EXTENSIVE FLOODING.

* WIDESPREAD AREAL FLOODING AND SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING MAY
RESULT AND IMPACT NUMEROUS ROADS...AGRICULTURAL LANDS AND
POSSIBLY RESIDENTIAL AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

Flood warning issued for several northwestern Ohio counties

Flood warning map
Area enclosed by green polygon is under a flood warning until 6 p.m. EDT
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1226 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
EASTERN DEFIANCE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
ALLEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
EASTERN PAULDING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
EASTERN VAN WERT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 1225 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING OVER THE WARNING AREA. THE RAINFALL HAS
BEEN HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

SOME TOWNS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE BELMORE...
CLOVERDALE...COLUMBUS GROVE...CONTINENTAL...DUPONT...FORT JENNINGS...
GILBOA...GLANDORF...KALIDA...LEIPSIC...MILLER CITY...OTTAWA...
OTTOVILLE...PANDORA...WEST LEIPSIC...PRENTISS...NORTH CREEK...
KIEFERVILLE...RIMER...RUSHMORE...VAUGHNSVILLE...WISTERMAN...
DESHLER...FLORIDA...HAMLER...HOLGATE...LIBERTY CENTER...MALINTA...
MCCLURE...NAPOLEON...NEW BAVARIA...COLTON...ELERY...GRELTON...
OKOLONA...PLEASANT BEND...TEXAS...GALLUP...DELPHOS...ELGIN...MIDDLE
POINT...OHIO CITY...VAN WERT...VENEDOCIA...CAVETT...JONESTOWN...
MONTICELLO...WETZEL...BROUGHTON...CECIL...GROVER HILL...HAVILAND...
LATTY...MELROSE...PAULDING...SCOTT...ARTHUR...CHARLOE...MANDALE...
OAKWOOD...ROSELMS...DEFIANCE...AYERSVILLE...BRUNERSBURG...
INDEPENDENCE...JEWELL...SHERWOOD...THE BEND...STANDLEY...BEAVERDAM...
BLUFFTON...CAIRO...ELIDA...FORT SHAWNEE...HARROD...LAFAYETTE...
LIMA...SPENCERVILLE...CONANT...GOMER...HUME...KEMP...NEEDMORE...
ROCKPORT...ROUSCULP...SLABTOWN...SOUTHWORTH...YODER AND WESTMINSTER.

AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH 2
PM BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS. THIS WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL MORE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND DON'T
DROWN!

TO REPORT FLOODING...POST YOUR INFORMATION ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA FACEBOOK PAGE...OR YOU CAN POST ON TWITTER
WITH THE HASHTAG...#NWSIWX.

Food warning issued for several northern Indiana counties

Flood warning map
Area bounded by green polygon is under a flood warning until 6 p.m. EDT
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1218 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WARNING FOR SMALL STREAMS IN...
NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY IN CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHEASTERN CASS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHERN MIAMI COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHERN WABASH COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA
SOUTHERN HUNTINGTON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
CENTRAL WELLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA

* UNTIL 600 PM EDT

* AT 1211 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
HEAVY RAIN HAD FALLEN OVER THE WARNING AREA. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND FLOODING.

SOME TOWNS THAT MAY EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE LA FONTAINE...
LINCOLNVILLE...SERVIA...SOMERSET...TREATY...MOUNT ETNA...WARREN...
BANQUO...MAJENICA...LANCASTER...PLEASANT PLAIN...PLUM TREE...
BUCKEYE...AMBOY...BUNKER HILL...GRISSOM AFB...MIAMI...NEAD...SANTA
FE...WELLS...PEORIA...BLUFFTON...CRAIGVILLE...LIBERTY CENTER...
MURRAY...NORTH OAKS...ROCKFORD...TRAVISVILLE...ONWARD...WALTON...
DEACON...LINCOLN...JALAPA AND FLORA.

UP TO AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 1 PM
EDT BEFORE ENDING. HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND LEAD TO ADDITIONAL LOWLAND FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. MOST FLOODING DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. TURN AROUND DON'T
DROWN!

TO REPORT FLOODING...POST YOUR INFORMATION ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA FACEBOOK PAGE...OR YOU CAN POST ON TWITTER
WITH THE HASHTAG...#NWSIWX.

NWS issues areal flood advisory

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1200 PM EDT THU APR 3 2014

DE KALB IN-ALLEN IN-ADAMS IN-WELLS IN-JAY IN-BLACKFORD IN-PUTNAM OH-
HENRY OH-VAN WERT OH-PAULDING OH-DEFIANCE OH-WILLIAMS OH-FULTON OH-
ALLEN OH-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BLACKFORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
JAY COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL INDIANA
ADAMS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
ALLEN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
DE KALB COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
WELLS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST INDIANA
DEFIANCE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
FULTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
WILLIAMS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO
ALLEN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
PAULDING COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
PUTNAM COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO
VAN WERT COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL OHIO

* UNTIL 300 PM EDT

* AT 1157 AM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10
MILES WEST OF CORUNNA TO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MILL GROVE...OR ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES WEST OF KENDALLVILLE TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HARTFORD CITY MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN THROUGH THIS MORNING
WITH AN ADDITIONAL ONE HALF TO ONE INCH LIKELY THROUGH 2 PM EDT
BEFORE THE RAIN DIMINSHES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...
COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND
OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO MINOR FLOODING.

TO REPORT FLOODING...POST YOUR INFORMATION ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA FACEBOOK PAGE...OR YOU CAN POST ON TWITTER
WITH THE HASHTAG... #NWSIWX.

Risk eases some for super outbreak anniversary

Day 1 convective outlook map
Green area: Non-severe thunderstorms. Yellow: Slight risk of severe weather. Red: Moderate risk of severe weather.

The risk of severe weather today — the 40th anniversary of the 1974 tornado super outbreak — appears slightly lower than today’s risk appeared yesterday, according to the Day 1 Convective Outlook issued at 1:58 a.m. EDT by the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC). Most of Indiana continues to have a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow and a moderate risk continues in the Mississippi Valley, but the risk of significant severe weather covers a smaller area in today’s day one outlook than it did in yesterday’s day two outlook.

Specifically, today’s day one outlook no longer indicates significantly severe weather in any part of Indiana.

Indiana and Ohio Counties
In northeastern Indiana, the slight risk area continues to include Huntington, Wells, Adams, Blackford and Jay Counties, as well as counties to the west and south of them. It does not include Allen, Whitley, DeKalb or Noble Counties or counties to the north and west of them. In northwestern Ohio, the slight risk area barely clips the southwestern corner of Van Wert County and excludes Allen County. It includes, however, Mercer and Auglaize Counties and essentially the southwestern fourth of Ohio.

Meanwhile, the very southwestern tip of Indiana, including Evansville, has a moderate risk of severe weather. The moderate risk area also includes western Kentucky and Tennessee, southern Illinois, most of the southern half of Missouri, most of Arkansas and the northwestern portion of Mississippi.

Hail, wind and tornado risk
For most of Indiana, the greatest risk is hail, with a 15 percent to 30 percent probability of at least one-inch-diameter hail within 25 miles of a point.

The probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots (58 mph) or higher within 25 miles of a point ranges from five percent north of Indianapolis to 45 percent in the Evansville area.

And the probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point ranges from less than two percent north of Indianapolis to 10 percent in the Evansville area.

Remember that all these events are generally rare, so probabilities as low as 10 percent indicate much more risk than on a normal day. Read more about severe weather probabilities.

Significantly severe weather in Mississippi Valley
The most remarkable risk in this morning’s outlook is for tornadoes capable of producing EF2 to EF5 damage (See an explanation of the enhanced Fujita scale). The probability of such significant tornadoes within 25 miles of a point is at least 10 percent in parts of southern Illinois, southern Missouri and northern and eastern Arkansas.

The outlook also indicates a 10 percent or greater probability of two-inch-diameter hail within 25 miles of a point in parts of Missouri, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas.

Timing for northern Indiana
Regarding timing, any severe storms in northern Indiana will most likely not occur until tonight and will mostly be south of U.S. 30, according to a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued by the northern Indiana NWS office at 5:11 EDT. That outlook also indicates that heavy rainfall today and tonight could result in flooding, especially along and south of U.S. 24.

The Hazardous Weather Outlook indicates that SKYWARN storm spotter activation might be needed tonight, so spotters should check their gear and be ready to report severe weather, especially hail and damaging winds.

Next update
The SPC will update its Day 1 Convective Outlook at approximately 12:30 p.m. EDT and again at approximately 4 p.m. This link will take you to the latest version at any time of day.

Super outbreak anniversary brings slight to moderate risk of severe weather

Probabilities map from Day 2 Convective Outlook
Probabilities of severe weather with 25 miles of a point, 8 a.m. EDT April 3 to 8 a.m. EDT April 4. Hatched area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe weather (see text below) within 25 miles of a point.

Tomorrow is the 40th anniversary of a super outbreak of tornadoes … an outbreak that caused massive damage in Monticello, Indiana and Xenia, Ohio, among many other places.

Ironically, some of the same areas that were affected by the 1974 outbreak have either a slight or moderate risk of severe weather, including tornadoes, on the anniversary.

Most of Indiana has a slight risk of severe weather between 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow (April 3) and 8 a.m. EDT Friday, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 1:58 a.m. EDT today. The slight risk area also includes parts of Ohio and several states to the south and west. The slight risk area includes all or part of the Indiana counties of Huntington, Wells, Adams, Blackford and Jay, as well as other Indiana counties to the west and south of those. It also includes part of Van Wert County, Ohio. As of this morning, the slight risk area does not include the Indiana counties of Allen or Whitley, or counties to the north and west of them.

As you can see on the probabilities map above, north central and northeastern Indiana counties in the slight risk area have a 15 percent probability of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of a point. You can see an excellent explanation of severe weather probabilities on the SPC website. Day two outlooks lump all types of severe weather together, so these probabilities indicate that any of the following could occur: large hail, damaging wind, or tornadoes.

What’s particularly interesting about this morning’s day two outlook is that it indicates an area in which there’s a 10 percent or greater risk of significant severe weather. The SPC defines “significant severe weather” as two-inch diameter or larger hail, 65 knot (75 mph) or stronger winds or tornadoes capable of producing EF2 or greater damage. Because there’s less than a one percent probability of any of these events on a normal day, a 10 percent or greater probability represents a much greater risk than normal.

The area with increased risk of significant severe weather is indicated on the map above by the black loop and hash marks. It includes much of central and southern Indiana, including the Indianapolis, Terre Haute and Evansville areas. It also includes the southern halves of Illinois and Missouri, western halves of Kentucky and Tennessee, northwestern Mississippi, and all of Arkansas.

Here’s a summary of what SPC meteorologists wrote in the textual part of this morning’s Day 2 Convective Outlook: The potential exists for numerous severe storms Thursday with damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes possible, especially from the lower- to mid-Mississippi Valleys into the western Tennessee and Ohio valleys.

Surface-based thunderstorms will probably form across the lower- to middle- Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon. These storms may initially be discrete in character, and conditions will become increasingly favorable for supercells capable of large hail and tornadoes. This activity will eventually spread eastward into western portions of the Tennessee Valley during the evening and overnight with a continued severe threat.

In the Ohio Valley region (including Indiana), the primary severe threat should develop Thursday afternoon and again overnight as deep layer winds strengthen ahead of a mesoscale convective system that is expected to evolve upstream across the mid-Mississippi Valley region. Damaging wind and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats

Our next look at the severe weather picture for tomorrow comes midday today, when the SPC will issue an updated Day 2 Convective Outlook. Even more specific information will appear in a Day 1 Convective Outlook due out early tomorrow morning.

Slight risk of severe weather Thursday

Day 3 convective outlook map
Convective outlook for the period 8 a.m. EDT April 3 to 8 a.m. EDT April 4. Green area: Non-severe thunderstorms. Yellow area: Slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

Most of Indiana has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms between 8 a.m. EDT Thursday and 8 a.m. EDT Friday, according to the Day 3 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC)  issued at 3:29 a.m. EDT today. The slight risk area includes Huntington, Wells, Blackford and Jay Counties of northeastern Indiana. It does not currently include Whitley, Allen or Adams County, Indiana or any of the Ohio counties served by the northern Indiana NWS office.

The potential exists for a widespread severe event Thursday — with damaging wind, large hail and tornadoes possible — especially from the lower-and mid-Mississippi Valley into the western Tennessee Valley, according to the Day 3 Convective Outlook. Meteorologists anticipate that they might need to upgrade the risk level from “slight” to “moderate” in portions of the above-described area in later outlooks.

The main threat for Indiana will be overnight Thursday into Friday morning, as storms develop along an advancing cold front. Meteorologists expect the storms to grow into one or more mesoscale convective systems.

Much could change between now and Thursday but this is a good time for SKYWARN storm spotters to make sure their equipment is ready to go and to keep an eye on subsequent convective outlooks.

Others, especially anyone who has planned outdoor activities Thursday, should prepare to change their plans as the day draws closer.

We’ll get our next outlook for the period early tomorrow morning, when the SPC issues a Day 2 Convective Oulook.