SKYWARN

Slight risk of severe weather tomorrow (Wednesday)

Map from 0600Z day 2 convective outlook

Update: The 1:20 p.m. EDT update to the Day 2 Convective Outlook looks pretty much the same as this morning’s version. Our next look at tomorrow’s severe weather risk comes at about 2 a.m. tomorrow, when the first Day 1 Convective Outlook of the day comes out.

A slight risk of severe weather exists throughout much of Indiana and Ohio between 8 a.m. EDT Wednesday, August 7 and 8 a.m. EDT Thursday, August 8, according to the Day 2 Convective Outlook that the National Weather Service (NWS) Storm Prediction Center (SPC) issued at 2 a.m. EDT today. The slight risk area includes all of IMO SKYWARN quadrant two.

The outlook indicates a 15 percent probability of severe weather within 25 miles of any point in the slight risk area. The greatest risks are straight-line winds and possibly some hail. Read more about outlook probabilities.

The storms are most likely in the afternoon tomorrow, according to the Hazardous Weather Outlook that the norther Indiana NWS office issued at 5:11 a.m. EDT. That outlook also indicates that SKYWARN spotter activation might be needed tomorrow afternoon.

We get our next look at tomorrow’s weather situation when the SPC issues an updated Day 2 Convective Outlook at approximately 1:30 p.m. EDT today.

SKYWARN

Newspaper article examines lack of Peru tornado warning

The National Weather Service (NWS) never issued a tornado warning for Peru July 10, where a brief EF-1 tornado did significant structural damage. In a recent article in the Kokomo Tribune, NWS warning coordination meteorologist Michael Lewis explains the two reasons the Northern Indiana office didn’t issue a tornado warning:

First, he said, weather radars didn’t clearly indicate there was tornado activity in the area. Second, there were no reliable reports of a tornado from trained spotters on the ground.

Lewis reminded Tribune readers, however, that the NWS had issued a severe thunderstorm warning and that people should not ignore such warnings.

“… a severe thunderstorm warning issued, which means there was the potential for life-threatening conditions,” he said. “You don’t have to have a tornado to get tornado-like damage. High winds can be just as bad.”

Tribune reporter Carson Gerber did a pretty good job on the story. Check it out.

Traffic handling

Traffic handling: The value of VOX

Photo of VOX control on a transciever

It’s a very good idea to use the voice-operated relay (VOX) function of your transceiver when sending traffic on SSB. If you use VOX, your rig will automatically stop transmitting between words. This will enable you to hear the receiving station, should that operator need to interrupt you for any reason.

I recently heard a real-life example of why this is important. During a section-level NTS SSB net, a net control station (NCS) was sending a radiogram to another net member. The NCS was not using VOX. His transmitter was therefore on continuously for the entire preamble and address block, until he finally transmitted the “break” between the address block and text. Then and only then did the NCS stop transmitting so he could hear a response from the receiving station.

Unfortunately on this day, the receiving station was having a problem with intermittent high noise levels in his receiver. The NCS had only transmitted for a couple of seconds when the noise popped up at the receiving end, making it impossible for the receiving station to copy the NCS. The receiving station tried to interrupt the NCS and let him know that radiogram reception was no longer possible, but to no avail. He had to wait and wait and wait until the “break” finally came.

Because the NCS was not using VOX, a considerable amount of net time was wasted. Fortunately, this is not a major issue during normal times of low traffic volume. But during a period of high volume, such as after a disaster, every second of net time counts.

You might think, “I’ll remember to turn on VOX during high traffic volumes.” But the fact is, as any musician knows, we perform as we practice.

Using VOX during the transmission of all radiograms is a best practice that all net control stations and other experienced operators should model for the newer traffic handlers among us.

SKYWARN

Spotters protect quadrant during July storms

A line of severe thunderstorms came through northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio July 10. When the National Weather Service issued a severe thunderstorm watch at 12:31 p.m. EDT, IMO SKYWARN went into standby mode on the 146.88 MHz ACARTS repeater. By the time the operation ended at 3:28 p.m., 35 stations had participated in the operation, representing the following counties: Allen (Ind.), Allen (Ohio), Blackford, Huntington, Noble, Whitley and Van Wert. IMO SKYWARN received 12 reports, which were relayed via telephone to the National Weather Service office in North Webster.

In quadrant two, the system dropped some hail and did straight-line wind damage, including blowing down trees and power lines. Most of those reports came from Blackford, Jay and Van Wert Counties.

This is the same storm system that briefly dropped an EF1 tornado on Peru, which is in IMO SKYWARN quadrant three. What happened in Peru emphasized the value of the 35 stations who were involved in the quadrant two operation. The National Weather Service did not receive any reports of the Peru storm damage until hours after it occurred – and well after the same storm system had passed through quadrant two. With 35 stations available during a weekday, I’m confident that the NWS would have heard about such damage much sooner, had it been on our area. Keep up the good work!

Online training still available

Photo of a funnel cloud look alike over the Fort Wayne area in March, 2013.
This funnel cloud look-alike appeared over Fort Wayne in March, 2013. Training helps spotters tell the difference between rain shafts like this and true funnel clouds.

While we can be proud that so many hams show up and are ready to report when severe weather threatens, some of those well-meaning hams might not have recently received National Weather Service spotter training. Training is important for many reasons. It helps you know what to look for and how not to be fooled by “look-alike” phenomena that doesn’t represent danger. Most importantly, it helps you know how to remain safe while serving as a storm spotter.

Online independent study storm spotter training became available this year. It’s easy to use and very informative. In July, the National Weather Service informed me that 32 Allen County (Ind.) residents have completed the online training. Of those, 12 are licensed ham radio operators: K9JDF, KB9WWN, KA9IPA, KB9WWM, KC9CGN, KC9EZP, KC9HIY, KC9MUT, N9MEL, N9UKE, W9GGA and W9LW. If you’ve completed the online training but aren’t on that list, contact me at w9lw@arrl.net and I’ll put you in touch with the appropriate person at the National Weather Service. If you’re one of the hams who participate in SKYWARN operations but have not taken the new online spotter training course, I strongly urge you to complete the training. You can find it at this URL: http://ow.ly/nryDX.

SKYWARN hams program weather radios

Photo of N9TB and KC9MUT programming weather radios at a Walgreens store
Tom Baker, N9TB (left) and Charles Ward, KC9MUT, help visitors to a Walgreens store program their new weather radio.

In my June and July columns for Allen County HamNews, I forgot to mention that several local hams provided a valuable public service in late May, by helping people program the Specific Area Message Encoding (SAME) decoders on their NOAA Weather Radios. Properly configured radios reduce the incentive to turn off weather radios that would otherwise activate for warnings affecting distant areas. Several organizations hosted the weather radio programming events, including Walgreens, Kroger, WANE-TV and the Allen County Department of Homeland Security. One event occurred at a Walgreens on West Jefferson Blvd and the other happened a few days later at the Kroger on Dupont Road. The following hams volunteered their time at one or both of the events: Tom Baker, N9TB; Jim Moehring, KB9WWM; Joseph Lawrence, K9RFZ; Tom Rupp, KU8T; Charles Ward, KC9MUT; and Jay Farlow, W9LW. Together they programmed a total of more than 100 weather radios.

Traffic handling

Traffic handling: Unnecessary repetition wastes time

Recently I was listening to an SSB section traffic net and heard a region net representative passing inbound traffic to another station for local delivery. Conditions were good and the two stations seemed to have no trouble hearing each other. The region net representative sent the entire text like this (this was not the actual message I heard):

WITH THE STORM SEASON APPROACHING MAKE SURE YOUR SKYWARN TRAINING IS CURRENT X CHECK WITH YOUR EC OR SKYWARN COORDINATOR WITH THE STORM SEASON APPROACHING MAKE SURE YOUR SKYWARN TRAINING IS CURRENT X CHECK WITH YOUR EC OR SKYWARN COORDINATOR 

No, that’s not a typographical error. The region net representative sent the entire text and then immediately sent it again, without warning.

When reception is good, this kind or repetition wastes time, which could be a real problem during a period of high volume (e.g. after a disaster). Even in poor conditions, it’s rarely necessary to repeat an entire message. We instead wait for the receiving station to request “fills” (parts of the message he missed or was unsure of) and repeat only the needed information.

In addition, the ARRL NTS Methods and Practice Guidelines (MPG) provide a procedure a sending station should use when the operator feels unrequested repeats are necessary for clarity:

2.1.4.7 I SAY AGAIN, (use #1) To REPEAT FOR CLARITY Say the group(s), then “I say again”, repeat the group(s), and then continue. It is wise to limit repeats for clarity to one group at a time to avoid confusion with use #2 below. In bad radio conditions, however, repeating phrases or whole lines of a message can increase the chance for correct copy.
“WHISKER I say again WHISKER … ” 

Note that the MPG indicates that all such repetitions should be introduced with the phrase, “I say again.” The region net rep I heard did not use that phrase, so the copying station probably thought the first word of the repeat (“with”) was actually the next word of text. Note also that the MPG indicates that the most a sending station should repeat at a time is a “line of a message,” not the entire text.

Let’s all model best practices, as outlined in the MPG, when we pass traffic, especially if we’re serving in official capacities such as region net representative or net control station. Our failure to do so is one way that less experienced operators learn bad habits.

SKYWARN
NWS Infographic.

The northern Indiana National Weather Service office published the infographic above along with the information below:

Hot and muggy conditions will remain this evening ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is expected to spark the development of showers and thunderstorms that will move into the area later this evening, most likely after 8 pm EDT. There remains a slight risk for a few of these storms to be strong to severe with damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the main threat. This threat will be highly conditional depending on whether or not the storms can organize before instability is lost as the sun sets. Cooler, less humid air will move in behind the front with highs in the 80s for the weekend. For the latest advisory and forecast information see our website at www.weather.gov/iwx.

SKYWARN

IWX: Severe weather looking less likely

The best chance for severe thunderstorms today will be between 8 p.m. EDT and midnight across the northern part of the forecast area of the northern Indiana National Weather Service office (e.g. north of the Indiana and Ohio toll roads). That’s according to an Area Forecast Discussion that the office issued at 4:29 p.m.

Atmospheric conditions that support storm development are on their way, especially the upward forcing provided by a cold front and a strong change in wind speeds with altitude. But by the time those conditions get to the office’s forecast area, the atmosphere will have become more stable, as it usually does as temperatures fall in the evening. If instability is insufficient by the time the cold front arrives, we might get rain but no severe storms. If severe storms do form, the main threat will be damaging straight-line winds.

SKYWARN

Local NWS office writes Facebook update on storm possibilities

NWS logo

The northern Indiana National Weather Service office posted the following message on its Facebook page at 4:14 p.m. EDT:

“We’re in “wait and see” mode here at the office this afternoon. The atmosphere is unstable enough to support thunderstorms but not much has developed so far. The main cold front is still draped back in western WI to central Iowa. We will be watching that closely as it moves southeast into the area later this evening. If storms do fire along the cold front, there is a possibility that some could be strong to severe with damaging winds as the main threat. We will continue to monitor the situation as time goes on and will keep you posted!”

SKYWARN

Severe risk remains same in afternoon outlook

Categorical map from afternoon Day 1 Convective Outlook

The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center issued an updated Day 1 Convective Outlook at 3:51 p.m. EDT but it contains no changes from the midday version of the outlook. Northern Indiana, northwest Ohio and lower Michigan remain at slight risk of severe weather between 4 p.m. EDT today and 8 a.m. EDT tomorrow.

Disasters

Chemical fire in Columbia City causes injuries, triggers evacuations

Hazmat graphic

A chemical fire in Columbia City has reportedly injured some people, forced others to evacuate and led officials to ask some Columbia City residents to turn off their air conditioners. Read more in this report from WANE-TV.

In addition, help from the Fort Wayne Fire Department is on its way to Columbia City as of the time of this post.

Severe weather, ham radio & anything else I feel like writing about