…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING… THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER…
View the full statement on the NWS website.
Minor ice accumulation forecast for Tomorrow morning
As you can see from the infographic above, the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service is forecasting minor ice accumulation Saturday morning, before freezing rain turns to rain and all the ice melts.
The rain should change to snow Saturday night, which could continue through Sunday.
Late Tuesday and Tuesday night, a separate system could bring “several inches of snow” to the forecast area of the northern Indiana NWS office, according to an Area Forecast Discussion that the office issued this morning.
Wintry mix possible this weekend
Northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and/or northwestern Ohio could receive a wintry mix of precipitation this weekend, according to a “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service issued this morning.
As usual with forecasts several days in advance, meteorologists still have a large amount of uncertainty regarding how strong the expected storm system will be and exactly where it will go.
If you have travel plans this weekend, it would be wise to continue watching official forecasts as the period nears. One of my favorite sources is www.weather.gov.
NWS: Rain will change to snow, high winds will blow
Forecasters expect rain today, changing to snow this afternoon and evening in northern Indiana, southwestern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio, according to various text products from the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) (Facebook, Twitter).
They expect the change to snow to begin this afternoon in the western counties of the office’s 37-county warning area (CWA) and progress to the eastern counties by this evening.
The office has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for counties along the western edge of its CWA (see graphic above), where meteorologists expect one to three inches of snow with locally higher amounts. The winter weather advisory is in effect from 4 p.m. to midnight.
They issued a Wind Advisory for most of the CWA’s Ohio counties from 4 p.m. this afternoon to 3 a.m. tonight. There, they forecast sustained winds of 20 to 30 mph, with gusts up to approximately 45 mph.
The NWS issued a Special Weather Statement for the rest of the CWA that alerts readers to potentially difficult driving conditions by this evening, due to slushy roads and reduced visibilities.
Believe it or not, there is still some uncertainty regarding when the change from rain to snow will happen and therefore, how much snow will fall. That’s because there’s still a chance that the low pressure system that will be responsible for all this weather could follow a different path than forecast. “Just a 20-30 mile shift west or east will make all the difference,” writes NWS meteorologist Mark Steinwedel in an Area Forecast Discussion the northern Indiana office issued this morning.
As of 7 a.m. EST today, that area of low barometric pressure was just south of Indiana (see map above; black arrow points out the low). When meteorologists see what path the low actually takes, they’ll be better able to forecast snowfall timing and amounts.
Christmas Storm snowfall forecast remains difficult
“Uncertainty.” If you’ve been following this blog (or any other information sources) for information on a winter storm forecast for Christmas Eve, you’re probably growing weary of that word.
But “uncertainty” remains the key word, because the low pressure system that will be responsible for the storm is just beginning to form in the area of the Gulf of Mexico this morning.
Currently, that low pressure system is forecast to move straight up through Indiana. Most of the snowfall will be to the west of the low. That means if the low goes right over you, you won’t get as much snow as you will if it goes east of you.
Meteorologists use a suite of computer forecast models to predict things like where that low pressure system will go. Different models calculate things differently, so meteorologists don’t rely on a single model, they look at several. Agreement between the outputs of several models helps them forecast confidently.
Unfortunately, as of this morning, the range of storm tracks provided by those models “remains a bit wider than one would like to see at this time,” writes meteorologist Sam Lashely in an “Area Forecast Discussion” that the northern Indiana National Weather Service office issued.
Lashley continues, “The details with where any accumulating snowfall will develop remain in question,” and “we continue to stress the uncertainty and need for people traveling to continue monitoring forecasts and remain aware.”
NWS Northern Indiana takes stab at accumulation forecast
The northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service sent an email message to emergency managers in its forecast area this afternoon that included a map (above) showing a very preliminary snow accumulation forecast for the coming winter storm.
The NWS wrote:
- Rain is expected to change to snow from west to east across the area Wednesday evening.
- Snow accumulations of one to three inches along with slick roads are possible from this system.
- Confidence in the snow accumulation forecast is low at this time, but since the snowfall could impact the busy Christmas Eve traveling period, the NWS wanted to make sure emergency managers are aware of the potential.
Expected snow accumulations from Christmas storm remain a “long shot”
Numerous questions remained regarding a winter storm forecast for around Christmas Eve, according to an “Area Forecast Discussion” issued this morning by the Northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS).
Uncertainty remained high with respect to the timing and location of a changeover from rain to snow and resultant amounts of snow, writes NWS meteorologist Sam Lashley.
“Current indications still support a later changeover to snow Wednesday afternoon. With a very wet and relatively warm ground from rain it will be difficult for snow to accumulate initially,” Lashley writes. “Expected accumulations remain a long shot and still highly uncertain.”
“Those with travel plans or concerns should continue to monitor updated forecasts through the early part of the week leading up to the storm,” Lashley concluded.
One good source for updated forecasts is the NWS website, www.weather.gov. This blog will attempt to keep readers updated as well, but the NWS website or your favorite broadcast website will have more information and sooner.
Forecast intensity of Christmas storm now much weaker
The forecast intensity of a winter storm Christmas Eve and Christmas Day is much weaker than earlier forecasting models suggested, according to an “Area Forecast Discussion” issued this morning by the Northern Indiana National Weather Service office.
Forecaster Sam Lashley writes of two low pressure systems, the first of which would bring rain to the northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio area Monday afternoon in to Tuesday. Some forecast models suggest that a second low pressure system will develop behind the first one, but others disagree.
If the secondary system develops, the area could get more snow on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day than if it does not, but meteorologists remain quite uncertain about what will happen.
For now, the bottom line is:
- There is still a chance of snow on Christmas Eve.
- Uncertainty continues regarding the track and strength of the storm.
- As of this morning, it appears that any significant snow accumulation will miss the northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio areas.
- Things could still change, so anyone who has holiday travel plans should keep checking back with www.weather.gov and other reliable sources of weather information.
Excellent EmComm tips from St. Louis Metro ARES/RACES
The St. Louis (Mo.) ARES/RACES organization published some excellent tips for ham radio operators who are involved in emergency communications and/or public service events. You can read the entire thing on their website and below are a few of my favorites, with some of my own comments.
Things to avoid saying on the air, Number 1
“Okay, I’ll do it. But it’s not actually my job. The guy who’s supposed to do that is always away from the table doing something else.” The other operator doesn’t want to hear any of that and it ties up the frequency. Make a note of your complaints in your log and bring them up at the debriefing, but keep them off the air.
From Gary Ross Hoffman, KB0H
This is so true. An addition problem caused by such transmissions is the damage to ham radio’s image caused when representatives of served agencies and/or members of the general public overhear such comments through the radios of nearby operators. Even though we are amateur radio operators, we must always behave professionally on the air, especially when involved in public service.
The value of tactical call signs
Tactical call signs such as “Shelter 5”, “Net Control”, and “EOC” are descriptive and give immediate information. They can be very useful during planned events and during emergencies. Do not, however, forget to include your FCC call sign at ten minutes intervals and at the end of each contact.
From Various experienced operators
Just a bit of clarification here: During a public service event or emergency communications operation, a contact, QSO or (as the FCC Part 97.119 puts it) “communication” that lasts more than 10 minutes should be exceedingly rare! This means that if your FCC call sign is the last thing you say at the end of your last transmission during each contact , you should almost never have to worry about the 10-minute rule.
Never alter a message
Do not alter a message, even to correct a typographical error. What you think is right may actually be wrong. Moreover, any change you make might subtly alter the meaning of the message. Send or write it exactly as you receive it.
From Introduction to Emergency Communication course book
During public safety events, EmComm exercises and even NTS traffic nets, I’ve been amazed at how often I’ve heard this advice ignored. Even when relaying tactical messages (“Shelter one needs more cots”) verbatim transmissions are essential.
As a continuation of that thought, it’s equally important for radio operators to refrain from attempting to interpret messages. In other words, If the other operator requests clarification, I should not tell him what I think the served agency representative meant. I should instead relay the request for clarification to the representative and then relay his or her response.
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Keep it brief
Air time is precious, especially when there are numerous operators on the same frequency. Refrain from overexplaining things, engaging in personal greetings and chats, and anything else that might prevent important traffic from getting through.From Gary Ross Hoffman, KB0H
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Are you following procedures?
Operating procedures are developed from many hours of examining what went wrong during disasters. Familiarize yourself with the procedures and practice them in exercises. Arriving at a disaster scene and trying to freestyle it will only cause problems.From Gary Ross Hoffman, KB0H
These two tips reminded me of an operating procedure that many operators on EmComm nets don’t seem to know (based on what I hear): During a directed net, the only thing you need to say when calling the net control station (NCS) is your own call sign, once.
“Net Control, this is Aid Station Bravo” uses about twice as much air time as “Aid Station Bravo.”
During a directed net, we are not usually permitted to call anyone without first calling the NCS. The NCS operator knows this. Therefore, if I transmit my call sign and nothing else, the NCS will assume I’m calling him!
Likewise, a sharp NCS operator will answer such a call by transmitting only the call sign of the station that just called, not his own call sign! It should sound like this:
Aid station: “Aid Station Bravo”
NCS: “Aid Station Bravo.”
Aid station: “I have traffic for Logistics.”
NCS: “Logistics.”
Logistics: “Logistics.”
NCS: “Call Aid Station Bravo for traffic.”
Logistics: “Aid Station Bravo, Logistics.” (here, both call signs are appropriate, but notice the absence of the unnecessary “this is” before “Logistics.”)
I hope you find these thoughts helpful. I welcome you to add your comments, using the link above (below the post title) and to share a link to this post using the convenient buttons below.
Christmas storm confidence high but track, precipitation types and amounts still quite uncertain
Confidence remains high on a strong winter storm in the Midwest and Great Lakes region next week, but the important details on storm track, precipitation type and snow amounts remain quite uncertain, according to an “Area Forecast Discussion” that the northern Indiana office of the National Weather Service (NWS) issued early this morning.
Computer forecast models continue to “jump around with potential solutions,” writes meteorologist Sam Lashley.
As of this morning, Lashley expects mostly rain Monday night through Tuesday in his forecast area (northern Indiana, southern Lower Michigan and northwestern Ohio). Meteorologists remain uncertain about when and where that rain might change to snow and how much snow might fall, but as of this morning, snow is most likely Wednesday and Christmas Eve.
The “Hazardous Weather Outlook” that the northern Indiana NWS office issued this morning advises readers that the storm could impact holiday travel and that they should “pay attention to later forecasts as details become more clear.”
Good advice. You can always get information directly from the NWS website (www.weather.gov) and as my personal time permits, I’ll continue to keep readers of this blog updated.